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SENATE
Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race
Earlier this week, the Morning Consult (MC) research organization released new data showing the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test, 46-43% in Sen. Sherrod Brown's (D) favor, is consistent with other recently-released results.
An Emerson College survey released late last week produced a 46-44% split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, ten consecutive polls found Brown's edge to be at or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.
Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.
Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound
At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm, with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.
Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield & Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9 and 8 percentage points, yet the Senator never reached 50% in any.
The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.
STATES
Ballot Decisions: Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina
The Iowa Supreme Court ruled that none of the Libertarian Party congressional candidates are eligible to appear on the 2024 general election ballot because the Libertarian Party held its nomination convention two days before the legal deadline to conduct such a meeting. Therefore, the party will have no presence in the four Iowa congressional elections even though they have nominees in three of the districts.
The Missouri abortion initiative – struck down by a lower-level court earlier in the week, with the judge reasoning that the proponents had not met every legal requirement – was revived when the state Supreme Court overturned the decision. Therefore, the initiative to enshrine access to abortion in the state constitution will continue to appear on the ballot.
In North Carolina, the Board of Elections ruling that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. would remain on the presidential ballot even though he filed to remove himself, has been nullified. The state Supreme Court declared that Kennedy can decide to withdraw and ruled that the Independent should be removed from the Tar Heel State November ballot.
LOCALITIES
Wilmington, DE: The Governor Who Would be Mayor
Term-limited Delaware Governor John Carney (D) won't be leaving public life. Though he cannot succeed himself as the state's Governor, Carney will now become the Mayor of the state's largest city, Wilmington. His victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary guarantees him the position because he is unopposed in the general election.
This is not the first time we've seen a Governor later become a Mayor. Years after leaving the California Governorship, Jerry Brown (D) would later be elected Mayor of Oakland.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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