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HOUSE
NT-17: Rep. Lawler Clings to Lead
Emerson College conducted an identical two-poll series for The Hill newspaper in adjoining New York Hudson Valley congressional districts. The first, in one of three New York Democratic-leaning seats that Republicans hold, tests freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) against former Westchester County US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D). The Emerson poll finds a predictable toss-up result, with Rep. Lawler holding just a one-point lead, 45-44%, over Jones.
This is one of the critical seats in the country that will determine the next House majority. In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+7, any sustained slight polling lead for a Republican candidate is a good sign for the GOP and suggests Rep. Lawler has a legitimate chance to again win this difficult district.
NY-18: Rep. Ryan Posts New Lead
Emerson College also tested the competitive 18th Hudson Valley district, which lies adjacent to Rep. Mike Lawler's competitive 17th CD. Here, we see the Democratic incumbent recording a five-point lead, which is just beyond the polling margin of error.
The Emerson poll posts Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner) to a 48-43% advantage over retired NYPD Deputy Inspector Alison Esposito (R). This is a competitive race, and Republicans are investing in the campaign, yet it is clear that Rep. Ryan commands the inside track to re-election.
VA-7: Another Close Contest
For the third consecutive time, Ragnar Research Partners has produced a poll that finds a virtual dead heat between retired Army Colonel Eugene Vindman (D) and Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R) in northern Virginia's open 7th Congressional District.
The latest poll, for the Anderson campaign, sees Vindman holding only a 43-42%, margin, which is almost identical with what RRP found in their August and September polls.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is leaving this lean Democratic district to run for Governor in 2025. Despite his huge 5:1 spending advantage, Vindman has failed to nail down the seat. This suggests we will see a very close finish in November.
WA-3: Developing Dead Heat
A surprising dead-heat poll comes from Southwest Washington State. Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute finds freshman Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and 2022 congressional finalist Joe Kent tied at 46% apiece in their latest survey.
Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WA-3 with a substantial R+11 partisan lean, Mr. Kent failed to win the seat in 2020, when he was the favored candidate.
With a 50.1 – 49.3% result in Perez's favor two years ago, it was believed that she would prevail by a larger number in this election since she was again running against a candidate the electorate previously rejected. A larger turnout, however, in this lean Republican district likely means more GOP voters participating, so the presidential year turnout model could well help Kent.
The PPP survey result finds this race to be very much in play. Kent returning to win the seat in 2024 would be a major boon to Republicans in their fight to hold their small majority. Conversely, a Perez re-election victory would be a key cog in any new Democratic majority.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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