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SENATE
Texas: Big Money Supporting Ted Cruz
Both Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) have spent millions of dollars in their respective campaigns, but outside organizations are coming into the Lone Star State to tip the balance in Senator Cruz's favor.
The independent money spent to support Cruz and against Allred in this one race alone comes to $17.4 million. Meanwhile, the pro-Allred/anti-Cruz category spending is a mere fraction of the Republican's total at $470,000.
With polls suggesting a close race, Democratic / left of center groups will likely increase their involvement.
HOUSE
CO-8: Caraveo Now Up in New Poll
Last week we covered a poll from Emerson College, polling for The Hill and two Denver television stations that projected freshman US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44%.
Countering that data is a new survey from the Colorado Community Research organization that finds Rep. Caraveo, who won her seat two years ago with a victory of less than one percentage point, is leading (within this weighted polling sample) by a 48-45% margin.
There is no doubt this will be a close race because the seat was drawn to be a swing district. The data suggests that Rep. Caraveo has a slight edge, but this is a highly-competitive contest that will be decided in political prime time.
NY-1: Rep. LaLota Beyond Margin of Error
Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the NY-1 electorate for Rep. Nick LaLota's (R-Amityville) campaign and found the freshman Congressman leading former CNN commentator and author John Avlon (D) by a 50-42% margin in the Republican-favored eastern Long Island seat.
In 2022, Rep. LaLota succeeded then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R), who left the seat after four terms to run a close, but unsuccessful, bid for Governor.
Mr. Avlon, meanwhile, defeated former 1st District congressional nominee Nancy Goroff with 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary.
According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the 1st District carries a R+5 rating.
The Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.5R – 45.6D partisan lean. The
Down Ballot website staff ranks the seat as the 27th most-vulnerable in the House
Republican Conference.
NC-1: Rep. Davis Leads Comfortably in New Poll
The new 2023 North Carolina congressional map, which is expected to deliver at least a three seat gain for Republicans, sees the next-most competitive seat still trending Democrat.
The 1st District, in the northeast portion of the state and hugging the Virginia border, carries a 50.9D – 47.7R partisan lean according to Dave's Redistricting App statisticians.
With this background, Noble Predictive Insights, polling for Inside Elections, projects freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) as leading retired Army Colonel and consultant Laurie Buckhout (R) by a 42-34% margin, with Libertarian Tom Bailey recording 3% preference.
Because of the new congressional map, the current 7D-7R delegation is expected to become 10R-4D, with the 1st District only leaning toward the Democrats. This will be yet another congressional race to monitor on election night.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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