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SENATE
Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results
On Thursday, two polling firms reported results from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate; the surveys were conducted during the same time interval, but arrived at distinctly different conclusions.
The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service, sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44%. The Trafalgar Group, meanwhile, sees the two candidates tied at 47% apiece.
This is a good example how competing sampling and data-weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to determine which system produces the more accurate data.
Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind
We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democratic establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center) is the fifth consecutive publicly-released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.
The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Mr. Osborn – 47-42% in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.
HOUSE
CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result
The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state's newly-awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city's bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.
Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations, sees freshman US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44%.
In 2022, Ms. Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again
After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, a survey result released yesterday finds the latter woman re-taking the polling lead.
The new St. Anselm College poll projects a three-point lead for Ms. Ayotte, 47-44%, in the nation's only seriously competitive Governor's campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.
A negative point for Ms. Ayotte, however, is that former President Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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