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SENATE
Missouri: Mixed Numbers
Is the Hawley-Kunce contest becoming competitive? A new poll suggests this may be a possibility. An Oct. 23-26 GQR tracking survey conducted for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign sees their client trailing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) by only a 49-46% margin.
Previous full polls, however, see the Senator maintaining low double-digit leads.
Kunce has a strong fundraising operation that generated more than $20 million in campaign receipts through the end of September – just $6 million behind Sen. Hawley. Another $4 million comes from outside sources, 90% of which has gone to either promote Hawley or attack Kunce.
Missouri's recent voting history suggests that Sen. Hawley should win a comfortable victory, likely landing in the mid-50s with Kunce in the lower 40s.
HOUSE
CO-8: As Tight As Drawn
When the Colorado Redistricting Commission members drew the new seat that their state was awarded in the 2020 census, the intent was to construct a highly-competitive Congressional District that both parties could win in any election.
The new 8th District is performing as designed. In the 2022 election, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) won the congressional election with a bare 48.4 – 47.7% plurality. A new survey finds that the 2024 contest could be just as close.
Emerson College just returned an Oct. 24-26 poll that projects Rep. Caraveo to hold a slight 48-46% edge, similar to her previous victory margin, over state Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster).
Previous September surveys first found Rep. Caraveo holding a three-point edge, while another showed an even contest. Expect another plurality victory here on Tuesday, regardless of who wins.
MI-7: Barrett Still Up in Toss-Up Race
The race to represent Michigan's open 7th Congressional District promises to end in close fashion on Tuesday.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MI-7 as R+4, and statisticians with The Down Ballot political blog rank it the sixth-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.
Despite the rating numbers, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) won the current version of the district in 2022 with a 52-46% victory over then-state Sen. Tom Barrett (R), who returns in the open seat contest. Representative Slotkin is now the Democratic nominee for Michigan's open US Senate seat.
Emerson College just published what may be the final public poll for this contest. The Oct. 24-26 survey sees Barrett again holding a lead over former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D), 47-45%.
Barrett has led in all public polls for the race with a range of two-to-seven points. A GOP conversion win here would be a huge boost to the Republicans' quest to maintain their slim House majority.
GOVERNOR
Tennessee: Rep. John Rose (R) Moving Toward Statewide Run
Three-term Tennessee Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), who is a sure bet to win re-election on Tuesday, is indicating that he will enter the open 2026 Governor's race and will officially announce his political intentions soon after the current election concludes. We can expect to see a crowded Republican field vying to replace term-limited incumbent, Gov. Bill Lee (R).
When Rose makes his announcement, he will be the second House member to already make clear he will not seek re-election in 2026. Representative Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), in an earlier public comment indicating that the next term will be his last, was the first to declare that he will not be a candidate in the next election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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