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PRESIDENT
Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris canceling NC
Elon Musk yesterday broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. An Oct. 22-25 poll from Quantas Insights finds the Vice President leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. However, two other recent surveys of the Virginia electorate – from the Washington Post / George Mason University and Christopher Newport University – see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.
The Harris ad move makes sense if campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris' overall winning coalition of states.
SENATE
Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap
A trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake – after months of trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race – narrowing the gap.
Taken during the Oct. 24-29 period, the three surveys – from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel – show Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final analysis.
The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error – with one pushing Lake ahead of Gallego for the first time since July – suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.
HOUSE
NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On
Freshman New York US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of 2024's most-endangered House incumbents, has received some good news from an Oct. 24-26 Emerson College poll. The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44%.
Representative Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth-most-vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.
PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again
A new Noble Predictive Insights survey finds six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) leading Republican challenger Rob Bresnahan, 50-43%, in the race for Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth-most-vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania.
Republicans in this district are, however, up seven points from their 2020 performance, and ten points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.
Representative Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52% in 2020, and 51% in 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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