If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
SENATE
North Dakota: Conflicting Polls
Lake Partners Research, polling for Democrat Katrina Christiansen, released the results of their latest study, which gives their client a fighting chance against first-term Sen. Kevin Cramer (R). The ballot test finds the Senator holding a 49-40% lead, but the most troubling number for Cramer is his 38-44% upside-down mark with Independents.
Conversely, WPA Intelligence – which went into the field at a slightly later time than Lake Partners, with the same sample size – arrived at a wholly different tally. This survey (for the North Dakota News Cooperative) posts the Senator to a whopping 61-29% advantage. We will see which pollster is the more accurate at election time, but the WPAi result is much closer to recent voter history.
Wisconsin: Race Getting Closer
The Wisconsin campaign between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) has been heavily-polled, and the most recent surveys find her lead ranging from as close as one point to as many as seven. During 2024, a total of 39 polls have been published of this race and Sen. Baldwin led in 38, with one tie.
The most recent data, however, sees a tightening of the race. From Sept. 16-30, ten polls were released and while the Senator led all of them, her margin was at four or fewer points in eight of the ten studies – in fact, in six of the eight, her lead was three points or less. Should this pattern continue well into October, more attention will be paid to this campaign.
HOUSE
CA-22: Dead-Heat Poll Result
California's 22nd District, located in the state's Central Valley, is one of the most Democratic seats that sends a Republican to Washington. The latest survey projects that we will once again see a very tight finish. CA-22 is one of four California Democratic seats held by a Republican, and all of those districts will factor greatly into determining the next House majority.
Emerson College, polling for Nexstar, sees Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and former state Assemblyman and 2022 general election finalist Rudy Salas (D) tied at 45% apiece.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while The Down Ballot statistical group ranks the seat as the most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. In 2022, Rep. Valadao defeated Salas, 51.5–48.5%.
STATES
Florida: GOP Registration Boost Projects Bigger Turnout
Much has been made about the Florida voter registration numbers that saw the net Republican gain, in comparison to Democratic-identified party members, increase by 1.2 million individuals.
According to the DataDeskHQ statisticians studying the state, the estimated turnout model will favor Republicans by an 8.55 factor which, they say, will translate into a nine-point advantage for the GOP statewide candidates – mainly former President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. This counters the typical published polling that forecasts much smaller leads for both GOP contenders.
The DDHQ calculations appear to have merit. In 2022, both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio ran a net seven percentage points ahead of their cumulative polling numbers.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments