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PRESIDENT
New Hampshire: Coming Into Play?
A new state may be worth watching on election night, as a pair of polls find a narrowing of the race in New England's Granite State. Late last week, Emerson College released its latest New Hampshire poll, and the results saw former President Donald Trump cutting Vice President Kamala Harris' lead to 50-47%, a very strong improvement from The Dartmouth Poll's that found Harris holding a 21-point advantage.
Following the Emerson release, Praecones Analytica, polling for the NH Journal saw the two candidates breaking even. New Hampshire does not have early voting, so the campaign tightening in its final week suggests an upset is possible, since the Trump campaign appears to be peaking in the state at precisely the right time.
SENATE
Michigan: Rogers Draws Closer
A pair of polls from Insider Advantage and Patriot Polling finds Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) drawing closer to US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D).
Insider Advantage sees the two candidates tied at 48% apiece, while Patriot Polling sees Rep. Slotkin's lead holding at three percentage points.
Since Patriot was using a "registered voter" sample, as opposed to Insider's "likely voter" universe, it is probable that the IA poll may be more accurate. This is also consistent with the prevailing wisdom that the Michigan electorate is drawing closer as early voting progresses toward Election Day.
Nebraska: Sen. Fischer Still Trailing the GOP Brand
The latest Siena College / New York Times Nebraska survey finds former President Donald Trump holding a 14-point lead in his statewide race against VP Kamala Harris, while appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoys an 18-point advantage in his electoral quest to serve the balance of the current term.
Senator Deb Fischer (R), who has become embroiled in a tight and bitter race with Independent Dan Osborn, conversely leads by only two percentage points. Osborn, who rejects accusations that, though a registered Independent, he is actually a Democrat, is now running ads saying he supports former President Trump's tax and border policies.
This race remains one to watch on election night.
HOUSE
WA-4: The Write-In Strategy
The double Republican contest between Washington US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) and former NASCAR driver and businessman Jerrod Sessler has drawn little in the way of national attention. Though Sessler placed first in the state's August jungle primary and Rep. Newhouse second, the consensus is that Rep. Newhouse is the favorite for re-election, largely because he will attract most of the district's Democrats.
In order to give the Democratic voters a different alternative, outside sources are attempting to promote Democrat Cherissa Boyd, who is a write-in candidate. The Washington Republican Party is sending mailers drawing attention to Boyd, but urging voters to support the Republican candidate of their choice; this appears designed to squelch Boyd, but it could have their desired effect of driving Democratic votes away from Newhouse and toward Boyd.
It is unlikely this strategy will work because running a write-in campaign is very difficult, and it would take considerable resources to educate the voters in a shortened time frame. Though the plan is an attempt to use Boyd to help Sessler, the ploy is unlikely to deny Rep. Newhouse re-election.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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