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SENATE
Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge
A fourth consecutive poll – this, an Oct. 21-22 survey from Emerson College – finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7%.
Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates either at even strength, or with a one-point Baldwin lead on their ballot test questions.
While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.
HOUSE
GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds
After the co/efficient polling firm last week found veteran Georgia US Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey, which posts the Congressman to an eleven-point lead.
Meanwhile, data from Public Policy Polling found Rep. Bishop's lead at 51-40%, which is certainly more in line with the 2nd District's voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.
ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race
Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state Representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45% count.
In this particular situation, Maine's Ranked Choice Voting system may not play a role in the final outcome of the race, as the 2nd District ballot will feature only these two candidates.
Though there is a qualified write-in contender, it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives will be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50%. Without a ballot presence for the write-in, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race, which could give Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.
VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status
An Oct. 11-20 Christopher Newport University survey sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by just a single percentage point, 46-45%, in a district that former President Trump lost by two points in 2020, and where, in this survey, he trails by two.
This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from Republicans. In short, VA-2 is a must-win for the GOP. We can expect, therefore, to see additional ad money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.
According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the district's Democratic participation rate is up two points over 2020's rate at this stage of the race; meanwhile, the Republican rate is down two points, and the Independent rate off 1.5%, from the 2020 totals. Both rural and suburban participation rates are up five points, while the urban sector is down just under nine points. All of this means – at least at this point in the projection process – that we will see a close finish.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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