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SENATE
Pennsylvania: Democrat Sen. Casey Changing Tune
A new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) for the first time. This may explain why Casey is now agreeing with Trump's trade policies in a new ad and drawing a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration's fracking policy.
The Oct. 12-17 AtlasIntel survey projects Mr. McCormick with a 48-47% edge over Sen. Casey.
Simultaneously, however, an Oct. 11-17 Bullfinch Group survey shows Sen. Casey leading by seven percentage points, 50-43%.
Senator Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden message change to at least partially align himself with former President Trump is eyebrow-raising and suggests that the campaign's internal data might be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.
Michigan: Republican Mr. Rogers Up in New Poll
Similar to what we see in the Pennsylvania race, the new AtlasIntel poll shows former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) taking a small, one-point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine-point lead.
AtlasIntel's poll projects Mr. Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48% advantage.
The Bullfinch Group, meanwhile, finds Slotkin leading by a margin of 51-42%.
Obviously, these two pollsters have different methodologies in conducting their surveys, and which one is the more accurate is difficult to tell at this point. We will likely have to
wait until Election Day to determine which of the two research entities has the better
sampling practice.
House
MT-1: Republican Rep. Zinke Up Substantially
Montana US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state's at-large House seat in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly after the election, then-President-Elect Donald Trump nominated Mr. Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years.
When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Mr. Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State's new western 1st District. However, he won with an underperforming margin of 50-46% in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.
With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the '24
race could again be close. However, a new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey suggests
Rep. Zinke is likely to do better than his previous performance.
The poll, conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund, projects that the Congressman holds a 52-44% advantage – double his 2020 lead.
NY-19: Rep. Molinaro (R) Trails in Democrat Internal poll
A Global Strategy Group large sample survey for the Josh Riley (D) campaign gives Riley a 48-45% lead in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican.
For comparison, in the presidential race Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by only one point, meaning the incumbent Republican and former Dutchess County Executive is doing worse than his party's presidential ticket.
New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority, and this is a
district the Republicans need to keep in their column if they are to have a chance of
retaining their small majority.
The challenger, Mr. Riley, is outspending Rep. Molinaro by almost a 2:1 ratio. When external spending from outside groups is included, that ratio jumps to 3:1. Right-of-center outside groups will need to increase spending if they want to hold this important congressional seat.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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