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PRESIDENT
Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump
The National Catholic Reporter, a left-leaning publication, commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: 18 points in the latter and a dozen in the former.
Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45% advantage over Vice President Harris within the Catholic sample. The Oct. 3-8 online survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics.
Harris, however, does well with black (77% support) and Hispanic (67% support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters, with a 16% advantage.
Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, "were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] Church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights."
In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25%) and Nevada (25%), with Pennsylvania closely following (24%). Arizona (21%) and Michigan (18%) are next, while Georgia (9%) and North Carolina (9%) lag behind.
SENATE
Michigan: Republicans Up Investment
The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP, and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46% edge over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R).
The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied at 46% apiece between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time.
The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
House
CA-49: Conflicting Data
Last week, we reported on a Survey USA poll of California's coastal 49th District that found three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a twelve-point margin, 53-41%.
Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produced a much different result.
According to the 1892 data, the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45%, in Rep. Levin's favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite's position.
GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race
Georgia US Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42%. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.
Georgia's 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments.
Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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