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PRESIDENT
Alaska: Poll Tests Ranked Choice
Alaska should be a safe state for former President Donald Trump, but the Ranked Choice Voting system that allows those who support the last-place finisher to have a second vote can alter the results in favor of a minority party candidate. If a contender records majority support in the original vote, the RCV rounds do not occur.
The new Alaska Survey Research poll projects Mr. Trump with a 50-43-7% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I). Though the Independent has attempted to withdraw in the battleground states and has subsequently endorsed Mr. Trump, he remains on the Alaska ballot.
The pollsters asked the second-round question, and even within the Ranked Choice system, it appears Mr. Trump would carry the state. With most of Mr. Kennedy's votes going to Trump in the second round, he would prevail 54-46%.
SENATE
Nebraska: Dueling Polls
Just after Sen. Deb Fischer (R) released her Oct. 5-8 Torchlight Strategies internal survey, which posted the two-term incumbent to a 48-42% lead over Independent Dan Osborn, the challenger's campaign responded with mirror-image data.
According to an Oct. 9-12 Survey USA poll for the Osborn campaign, it is the Independent who claims the six-point lead, 50-44%. In order to add validity to their positive numbers, the Osborn campaign also released the results for Sen. Pete Ricketts' (R) race. The appointed Republican incumbent and former Governor holds a 16-point lead within the same polling sample, 53-37%.
The Fischer race continues to confound Nebraska Republicans, since the data consistently indicates that this contest is a legitimate upset possibility, while all other Republican statewide candidates are posting double-digit leads.
HOUSE
CT-5: Rep. Hayes (D) Clings to Small Lead
The closeness of the 2022 western Connecticut congressional race between Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) and then-state Senator George Logan (R) surprised most political observers with its 50.4 – 49.6% finish. With Mr. Logan returning for a rematch, Emerson College, polling for three media entities, recently tested the race. According to its results, another close result can be expected. The ballot test shows Rep. Hayes leading Mr. Logan, 49-46%.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CT-5 as D+3. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the district as the 28th-most-vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the district's voter history, plus the current polling, confirms that Rep. Hayes' maintains a only slight edge.
MI-7: Barrett (R) Leads Open Contest
A new Cygnal poll sees former state Senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett (R) taking a four-point lead, 47-43%, over former state Senator and ex-Whitmer chief of staff Curtis Hertel (D) in the open seat that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is risking to run for the Senate.
The race is universally-viewed as a toss-up campaign. In 2022, Rep. Slotkin defeated Mr. Barrett, 52-46%. Placing this district in the Republican conversion column would be a boon to party's hopes of holding their slim House majority.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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