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SENATE
Nevada: Sen. Rosen's Massive Closing Media Buy
Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is making a clear move to clinch her re-election with a massive $20 million media buy from Oct. 11 through Election Day, according to The Down Ballot political blog. This, it reports, is four times the amount Republican Sam Brown has reserved.
Senator Rosen has been on the air nonstop since early in the campaign cycle. She has been able to overwhelm Brown with ads and appears to have successfully positioned herself for a comfortable re-election victory.
At the beginning of the election cycle, this looked to be a potential Republican upset race, but now Sen. Rosen must be rated as a decided favorite.
Wisconsin: Republicans Increase Pressure
The Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP Super PAC, has added $6.6 million to its ongoing Wisconsin media buy, signaling that the most recent publicly-released polls showing a tightening of the race between Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) is verified through the organization's internal data.
The last six polls, from Sept. 27 through Oct. 9, have all returned single-digit results, with Sen. Baldwin's lead ranging from a high of five percentage points (Redfield & Wilton Strategies and the Research Company) to a low of just one point (Insider Advantage).
It appears we will see another tight finish in the Badger State, which often features razor-thin results.
HOUSE
CA-41: Rep. Calvert in Dead-Heat Contest
In 2022, veteran California US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) defeated former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D), 52-48%, in a Riverside County seat that the redistricting commission members made much more competitive.
A new Global Strategy Group survey (for the House Majority PAC (D)) sees the 2024 version of this race as a tie, with each candidate receiving 45% support. The Calvert-Rollins contest is one of the key California races that will likely make the difference in determining the House majority.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+7, so Rep. Calvert, running for a 17th term, should still be considered a slight favorite.
VOTING
Target Early: Early Early-Voting Totals
The earliest national early voting numbers are published, and according to the Target Early / Target Smart website, the big change when compared to 2020 totals is the big increase in the non-affiliated participation rate.
Nationally, 4.39 million people have already cast their ballot, and a whopping 61.7% are from the non-affiliated category. This compares to their 52.9% total of all early votes cast in 2020.
Democrats, so far, are 24.4% of the early vote total, down from their 27.0% share in the 2020 presidential election. Republicans are further off, recording only 12.8% of the early vote as compared to their national total of 18.3% in 2020. Naturally, these numbers will change drastically as the early voting process proceeds toward the election.
In 2020, out of more than 158 million who participated in the election, a total of 85.9 million people (54.3% of the total ballots cast) voted early. At this preliminary stage, the ballots already cast represent 5% of the early-vote total from the 2020 presidential election.
It is likely that the early-vote total will be lower in 2024, since the virtual universal mail vote in 2020 was largely a court-ordered emergency measure that won't be in effect this year.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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