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SENATE
Nebraska: Sen. Fischer Sees a Rebound
After three consecutive publicly-released October polls found Sen. Deb Fischer (R) trailing Independent Dan Osborn, a new Torchlight Strategies internal survey for the Fischer campaign sees a rebound. The ballot test finds Fischer, the two-term incumbent, leading Osborn by six points (48-42%).
Nebraska, a solidly-Republican state, has been turning in unfavorable polling numbers for Sen. Fischer, even though both Donald Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) (the latter also on the ballot, running to serve the unexpired portion of the current term), are more than 15 points ahead of their respective Democrat opponents.
The Fischer campaign has been airing aggressive ads to paint Osborn as a liberal Democrat who they claim is out of touch with the Nebraska electorate, and the message finally appears to be paying dividends.
HOUSE
CA-34: AIPAC to Aid Rep. Gomez
Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) has twice defeated Democratic movie executive David Kim's bids for office, notching up 53 and 51% re-election victories in consecutive election cycles, both double Democratic general elections under California's top two primary system.
Now, the United Democracy Project, a Super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has announced a $400,000 spend to help Rep. Gomez defeat Kim a third time.
In the past, Mr. Kim has advocated eliminating further US support for Israel.
Rep. Gomez is favored for re-election, but it is likely this race will again be close.
NV-2: Another Competitive Independent
Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer's Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada US Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) also faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democrat.
Greg Kidd is a registered Republican who qualified by petition signature to run in this congressional race as an Independent. Mr. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve, and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.
There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot
test is close. An expenditure the size of what Mr. Kidd is capable of making, however, can
certainly move numbers.
Representative Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Mr. Kidd's personal financial resources and commitment to self-financing his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.
TX-34: A Closer Than Expected Race in Texas
A new poll from the 1892 firm for the National Republican Congressional Committee finds
former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) trailing Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-
McAllen) by just three points (a 49-46% margin) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17.
This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention, but may be moving up the conversion priority chart.
The poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic
population. This district is 88% Hispanic and former President Trump, in this same poll,
leads Vice President Harris by a 49-47% in a seat drawn to elect a Democrat.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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