If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
Editor's note:
Election Day is Nov. 5. Be ready for the ballot box by registering to vote.
For information on registration deadlines in your state or territory, click here.
To register to vote online, or update your registration, click here.
PRESIDENT
Emerson College Polling: Series Confirms Previous Dichotomy
Emerson College recently launched a series of polls around the country and two states – Arizona and Wisconsin – are again confirming stark contrasts between the presidential and US Senate contests.
In Arizona, Emerson finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 51-48%. However, the Senate race clearly turns against the GOP. While Trump tips the scales with majority support, the GOP Senatorial candidate, former gubernatorial contender Kari Lake, trails US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) 50-43%.
In Wisconsin, while Emerson finds former President Trump surprisingly carrying the state by one percentage point, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin continues to lead her GOP opponent, businessman Eric Hovde, by four points, meaning a five-point favorable Democratic swing for the down ballot contest.
The ticket-splitting phenomenon present in several US Senate races, as depicted in this post, continues to reveal stronger GOP support for Mr. Trump than the commensurate Senate candidate in several states. Considering this pattern's figurative lifespan, it is possible the Republicans will not be able to overcome the momentum, thus leaving several opportunity races unconverted.
SENATE
Maryland: Alsobrooks Well Ahead
Two weeks ago, the University of Maryland at Baltimore County sampled the Maryland electorate, but only now are the results being released. The Senate race ballot test yields a 48-39% advantage for Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) over former Gov. Larry Hogan (R).
As we have seen in the past, a large number of Alsobrooks voters – 26% in this poll – say the reason they are supporting her is they want to see a Democratic Senate majority continue. The size of Alsobrooks' margin suggests that Mr. Hogan will have a difficult time reversing the trend – especially when Kamala Harris leads the presidential ticket with a 57-35% split.
Ohio: Race Continues to Tighten
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest the contest is tightening. Though former President Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State – a place he has twice won by eight percentage points – Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.
The trend, however, shows a narrowing of the race. While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the nine most recent polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points. Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we definitely see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments