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SENATE
Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue
A newly-released Impact Research poll shows the same pattern we've seen in other recent surveys – again suggesting that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-38%, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46%.
Entering the race to help boost the Senator's prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Senator Pete Ricketts' (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer's aid.
HOUSE
CA-16: Double Dem General Election Going to the Wire
An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) in his bid for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between Low and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D).
The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll's ballot test posted Liccardo to a 48-45% lead.
Releasing the survey after so much time elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo's way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.
This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California's jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus ten years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.
Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns, according to The Down Ballot political blog.
The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien), who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Representative Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).
Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).
LOCALITIES
Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat
The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble.
A new University of California at Berkeley's Institute for Government Studies poll finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21%.
In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25% of the vote. For an incumbent, a percentage that low is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern.
Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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