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PRESIDENT
North Carolina: Governor Race Drain
Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's (R) open campaign for Governor has self-destructed, both sides are attempting to see if there is collateral damage for other Republican candidates on the Tar Heel State ballot, most specifically regarding the presidential race.
It is fast becoming clear that North Carolina is likely the most important state on the board for Donald Trump. It is probable that the former President would not have a legitimate chance to win the general election if he fails to carry North Carolina.
East Carolina University has released their latest survey and the results posted Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Mr. Robinson by a whopping 50-33%, but former President Trump still maintained a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 49-47%.
Since the presidential race is always close in the Tar Heel State, the fact that Trump still leads when Robinson is getting badly beaten suggests that the GOP fallout may be limited to the Governor's campaign.
HOUSE
CA-45: Crypto Money Switch
The Fairshake Super PAC, which is funded from individuals with cryptocurrency interests and backs candidates of both parties who support alternative currency objectives, has seen a change in how some of its California money is being spent.
Recently, Fairshake, as is being reported, has shifted approximately $1 million in advertising money from Rep. Mike Garcia's (R-Santa Clarita) northern Los Angeles County district to that of Orange County GOP Rep. Michelle Steel.
Recent polling has given Democratic challenger Derek Tran a slight lead over Rep. Steel, but within the polling margin of error. The same is happening in the Garcia race, however, which makes the Fairshake move a curious one.
NH-1: Race Tightens
The Cygnal polling group, surveying for the National Republican Congressional Committee, sees a much closer 1st District congressional race than did polls conducted directly after the Sept. 10 primary election.
The Cygnal data release found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leading former Executive Councilor and ex-state Senator Russell Prescott (R) by only a four-point margin, 46-42%.
While other polling showed the open Governor's race as a dead heat, the Cygnal poll finds former Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) topping ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) with a 10-point margin, 49-39%.
The 1st District is the more Republican of the state's two CDs. The generic question within this same sampling universe and pertaining to the congressional race found the two parties tied.
Though this is a positive poll for the Republicans, Rep. Pappas should still be regarded as the favorite for re-election. We can expect studies conducted closer to November to reveal a larger Democratic lead.
In any event, all of the New Hampshire elections will be decided on Election Day since this is one of three states that has no early voting program.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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