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PRESIDENT
The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the 2024 presidential election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies, with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.
President-elect Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Mr. Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Biden.
SENATE
With two more US Senate races called – those in Nevada and Pennsylvania – the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Senator Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5% spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5%.
In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78% of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1% in the Congressman's favor.
HOUSE
It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.
Headed into the election, there were 55 open seats in the House, but little change occurred in terms of party-switching; only six seats have flipped parties, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana and North Carolina.
The lone electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan's 7th District, where Republican former state Senator Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.
Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.
In the 24 past hours, a half-dozen races have been called, with the following candidates winning their respective contests:
Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ-1)
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA-22)
Rep. Julia Brownley (D-CA-26)
April McClain Delaney (D-MD-6)
Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-OR-6)
Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA-4)
As of this writing, 13 House races remain uncalled:
AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D).
Two additional ore contests are technically uncalled – those of California Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Jay Takano (D-Riverside) – but their vote margins are such that they will both eventually attain victory.
Of the 13 uncalled races, Democrats currently hold seven seats, and Republicans six.
Democrats must win all 13 contests to secure a one-seat majority in the House.
Conversely, a Republican win in any one of the 13 races will give the GOP 218 members and, therefore, secure Republican control of the House. At this point, the GOP candidate leads in six of the 13 uncalled contests.
In short, again, Republicans are poised to keep the House majority.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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