If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
EARLY VOTING
Closings: Early Voting Just About Final
The TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization is posting near-final early-vote totals now that every state has concluded its process. According to these results, which will likely change a bit upward, more than 72 million people have voted early. This compares to more than 1.1 million early votes in 2020. Remember, however: Because of the Covid emergency rulings, we had almost universal early mail-in voting four years ago.
At this point, according to the TargetEarly model – which, they say is only a prospective outlook and not to be taken as wholly accurate – Republicans are up almost three percentage points over their 2020 performance, and six points over 2022. Conversely, Democrats are down one-and-a-half points when compared to 2020, and down more than five points when matched with their 2022 early-vote performance.
Overall, about two million more Democrats than Republicans have voted early this year. In 2020, that Democratic advantage number was more than seven million.
PRESIDENT
Iowa: Two More Polls Suggest Outlier
The Oct. 28-31 Des Moines Register / Mediacom Poll, which attracted great national attention after it found Kamala Harris taking a 47-44% lead over Donald Trump, is now being challenged by two other pollsters.
A Nov. 2-3 Insider Advantage survey sees a six-point Trump lead, 52-46%, while a Nov. 2-3 SoCal Strategies poll posts Trump to an eight-point advantage over Harris, 52-44%.
These final two polls come in the wake of a Nov. 1-2 Emerson College survey that sees Mr. Trump holding a nine-point lead, 54-45%. Together these three surveys are much more in line with Iowa voter history than the Des Moines Register / Mediacom Poll.
Trump carried the state 51-42% in 2016, and 53-45% in 2020.
SENATE
Ohio: Upset Brewing
No fewer than four political pollsters find Republican businessman Bernie Moreno topping Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the final round of Ohio US Senate polling. Four different pollsters find Moreno leading: the Trafalgar Group +1; AtlasIntel +3; Emerson College +4; and Morning Consult +1. All the surveys were conducted during the Oct. 23-Nov. 4 period, with Trafalgar and AtlasIntel sampling only in November.
With former President Trump leading all closing Ohio polls by a margin of nine to 11 percentage points, it will be a difficult climb for Sen. Brown to reverse the closing trends. According to TargetEarly/TargetSmart's modeled report – which, again, they caution may not be wholly accurate – Republican turnout is almost five points better than during the 2020 presidential contest, while Democrats are up only one point.
Overall, approximately 225,000 more Republicans than Democrats have cast ballots in this year's Ohio early vote process.
HOUSE
ME-2: More Confusion
We see another example of divergent polling in northern Maine, where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.
We reported earlier that from Oct. 24-29, Survey USA conducted a statewide poll and found Rep. Golden posting a 53-41% lead over Mr. Theriault. This, while Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 49-44% in the same Congressional District – a district that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.
In another survey, taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee actually sees Mr. Theriault leading 47-45%.
Now we see a final poll, taken Oct. 29-Nov. 2 by the University of New Hampshire, that more closely agrees with the Axis Research result, as well as previous voter history. The UNH result finds Rep. Golden holding only a 45-44% edge. It appears the Survey USA poll is the outlier, but we will find out for sure later tonight.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments