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EARLY VOTING
Early Voting Ends in All Seven Battlegrounds
All seven battleground states have concluded their early-voting periods, and generally the results appear to be better for Republicans than past early-voting years. The move to get their voters to the polls early looks to have produced results for the GOP.
The two biggest swings come in North Carolina and Nevada where, for the first time in
history, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats. The Arizona vote count looks good for the GOP, too.
The Harris campaign likely are pleased with what they see coming from Michigan and, especially, Wisconsin. Republican early turnout in the Badger State appears particularly low.
Georgia and Pennsylvania show mixed patterns, meaning we are likely again headed for very close finishes in both of those states.
PRESIDENT
Iowa
The Des Moines Register / Mediacom Poll is always viewed as the gold standard of Iowa prediction models. The Oct. 28-31 pre-election survey finds Kamala Harris suddenly leading Donald Trump, 47-44% – largely because of a huge break toward the former among women, particularly those who are aged 65 and older.
Yet, simultaneously, Emerson College released its Iowa survey and finds a much different result, one that is more in line with previous data. The Nov. 1-2 Emerson survey sees Mr. Trump holding a nine-point lead, 54-45%.
This is also closer to Iowa voting history. In 2016, Trump carried the state 51-42%,
and 53-45% in 2020.
An Iowa win for Harris would turn the electoral map topsy-turvy and potentially send the
final result on a completely different course. This situation bears watching as we close in
on Election Day. Iowa has six electoral votes.
SENATE
Virginia: Outlier Poll Finds Hung Cao Down 1
In another strange polling situation – one even the conducting pollsters admit is probably an outlier – Virginia US Senate candidate Hung Cao (R) is now just one point behind Sen. Tim Kaine (D), according to the Oct. 28-30 Chism Strategies survey. No other data shows such a close result.
Two other late October polls, conducted by Roanoke College and the Cygnal
polling firm, see double-digit Kaine leads (11 and 10 points, respectively), which is consistent with projections that the Senator will easily win re-election.
As a point of reference, the Chism poll also sees a close Virginia presidential race. That ballot test finds Kamala Harris and Donald Trump effectively in a tie. This, too is refuted by other pollsters.
HOUSE
ME-2: A Huge Polling Range
Continuing the theme of divergent polling, we see another example in northern Maine, where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state Representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.
Survey USA, conducting an Oct. 24-29 statewide poll, found Rep. Golden leading by 53-41% over Mr. Theriault, even as Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 49-44% in the same district, a difference that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.
In another survey taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the
National Republican Congressional Committee, actually sees Mr. Theriault leading 47-45%. Therefore, we see a 14-point polling span between these two studies.
With so many surveys being released at the end of the cycle, it is rather routine to see data results producing wildly-comparative swings, and the final days of the 2024 election is apparently no exception to such a trend.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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