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SENATE
Louisiana: Sen. Cassidy May Draw Republican Primary Challenge
Term-limited Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is confirming that he is considering launching a 2026 Republican primary challenge to two-term Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). Rumors of others also testing the political waters, including outgoing US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) and state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), are also surfacing.
Louisiana is changing its primary system. Gone is the jungle primary that places all candidates on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation and enables the top two finishers to advance into the general election; in its place is a return to the partisan primary and runoff system. Therefore, Sen. Cassidy, who may not be as conservative as his potential opponents, could find himself in a more competitive campaign in a partisan primary, rather than the jungle primary under which Sen. Cassidy has excelled.
HOUSE
CA-13: Adam Gray (D) Takes the Lead
As the slow vote-counting process in northern California's 13th District moves along at a snail's pace, the latest vote drop from Merced County – Democratic challenger Adam Gray's home domain – has now put the ex-state Assemblyman ahead of freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by a slim 182-vote margin.
Several thousand ballots remain to be counted, so the final outcome could still flip back to the Republican incumbent. Regardless of who eventually comes out on top, the margin will be very small. This means a subsequent recount is all but certain.
CA-45: Rep. Steel (R) Appears Done
With Democratic challenger Derek Tran now posting a lead of 613 votes and almost all of the ballots tabulated, it appears that two-term Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) will lose her seat. It also appears that she will return for a re-match. Even though counting is still incomplete, Ms. Steel has already filed to run again in 2026.
Should this race become final, as now expected, and looking at the possibility of a Democratic conversion win in District 13 along with the three impending vacancies, the House partisan division would feature 217 Republicans and 215 Democrats, at least until the two special vacancy elections scheduled in Florida for April 1.
Florida: Trump Endorses Two Non-Candidates
Though Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) is not yet an announced candidate for the vacant 1st District and state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an undeclared special election candidate in the 6th CD, President-Elect Donald Trump made a statement encouraging both to run and says he will endorse them.
With the President-Elect in his corner, Sen. Fine did issue an announcement of candidacy, and now should be considered the favorite to win the Jan. 28 Republican primary and then the subsequent April 1 special general election.
A total of 14 Republicans have announced for the 1st District. Upon hearing the Trump news, several of the candidates dropped out of the race and also endorsed Mr. Petronis.
In a nod to the President-Elect, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman and former US Senate candidate Keith Gross, and Army veteran John Frankman all said they would end their fledgling campaigns and support the Trump-backed candidate.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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