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House
CA-13: Duarte Continues to Lead
A few more votes have been added to the district totals in the hotly-contested northern California Congressional District 13 race between freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and former state Assemblyman and ex-congressional candidate Adam Gray (D).
The race continues to show the candidates basically tied, as was the case in 2022 when Duarte prevailed by 564 votes, which became the second-closest race in the country, even though President Biden carried CA-13 by eleven percentage points in 2020.
Mr. Duarte gained a few tallies in the latest report and leads by 204 votes, with
approximately 5,500 votes left outstanding. This race could be decided by 100 votes or
less. Therefore, we are likely some time away from a final decision.
Regardless of the eventual preliminary final count, we can expect a recount to be added to this already excruciatingly long counting process.
CA-45: Rep. Steel Drops Further Behind
The late counting trends in the laborious California process are looking worse for Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). She is now trailing attorney Derek Tran (D) by 545 votes, and it is difficult to see this race turning around.
If Rep. Steel does lose, the Republicans will relinquish at least two of the four Democratic seats they hold in the current California congressional delegation.
FL-1: Gaetz Won't Take Seat
Declaring as an open race candidate for Governor in 2026, former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) announced, over the weekend, that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.
After withdrawing as President-Elect Trump's nominee for Attorney General because the Senate would obviously not confirm him, there was speculation that Mr. Gaetz would instead return to the House since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, he was re-elected to a fifth term with 66% of the vote.
Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat.
The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28, with the special general on April 1. This means, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which the vacancy could be filled.
Candidates wasted no time in coming forward. Previously announced were state
Representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Now,
another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents have also declared their candidacies.
Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock, who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the '24 Republican primary but attracted only 27% support; and businessman Keith Gross, who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year's GOP primary but recorded only 9% of the Republican primary vote.
State CFO Jimmy Petronis, who had expressed interest in entering the special election, was not among the 14 Republicans who have already become official candidates. He, and others, could still join the field. The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.