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PRESIDENT
National: Harris, Vance Top New 2028 Primary Poll
Echelon Insights conducted a national poll shortly after the 2024 election (11/11-14; 1,010 US registered voters; 394 self-identified Democrats; 394 self-identified Republicans; online) and while the results don't have much relevance for a nomination election four years in the future, the post-election survey does provide some interesting data points.
First, the partisan sample sizes are too low for a national poll to draw major conclusions, but the respective leading candidates for the 2028 party nominations are so large as to give us a snapshot into what people believe just after the current election. For the Republicans, Vice President-Elect JD Vance commands a big lead, capturing 37% support. His closest rivals – former presidential candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley – each capture 9% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is next with 8%, and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) follow with 5% apiece.
The Democrats' favored candidate – the data point attracting the most attention – is Vice President Kamala Harris, who, despite her clear loss to President-Elect Trump, still commands the Democratic field with 41% support for another run. Trailing far behind are California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 8% support, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro who posts 7%, while Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz draw 5% apiece.
HOUSE
California: Duarte Clings to Small Lead; Steel Still Trails
The final two uncalled US House races lie in the Golden State. In Northern California's 13th District, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) continues to hold a small lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D). The current published totals give Duarte a slight 194-vote edge, which is down from his earlier count of 227, but more votes will be added to the final tally under California's laborious vote counting system, which verifies every mail ballot.
In the Orange County-anchored 45th District, two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind Democratic attorney Derek Tran by a 480-vote margin. This district, too, has an undetermined number of outstanding ballots still to count. The fact that the Congresswoman is now behind is certainly not a good sign for her, thus Mr. Tran will probably soon be declared the winner, and then a recount will begin.
FL-1: Changing Situation
Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected earlier this month. Though Mr. Gaetz stated that he "intends" not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress; therefore, he could return to the House.
Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main contenders are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Mr. Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.
OH-9: Rep. Kaptur Re-Elected
The final votes have been counted in Ohio's 9th Congressional District, and veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been re-elected to a 22nd term. Under Ohio law, an automatic recount is ordered for any election result within a half-percent. Until the final batch of votes was added to the total, the Congresswoman and her Republican opponent were separated by 0.3%.
The unofficial final tally now finds Rep. Kaptur outpacing state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by a margin of 0.7%, or 2,382 votes (48.3 – 47.6%). Another recount – this one involving Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) – continues, and the incumbent in that situation is likewise expected to prevail.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served as executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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