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SENATE
Nebraska: Independent Osborn May Return
Independent Dan Osborn attracted a lot national political attention in his race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R) this election cycle. Without a Democratic nominee, Mr. Osborn was able to build a coalition that Democratic leaders backed, which helped make him a viable candidate. He ran hard and polling even showed him leading the Senator in several surveys; in the end, he lost, 53-47%.
When asked this week whether he might return to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) or Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), Mr. Osborn indicated that he would consider running again, but first must “return to work tomorrow and start paying bills.”
Senator Ricketts, who, by a 63-37% margin, won the 2024 special election to serve the balance of the current term, will be on the ballot again in 2026 as he runs for the full six-year term. With Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas losing consecutive close elections to Rep. Bacon, the Democratic leadership will very likely look for a new candidate to oppose the five-term Congressman in 2026.
Pennsylvania: Recount Begins
The Pennsylvania Senate initial vote count is complete, and the unofficial final tally finds Republican David McCormick leading Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by a total of 16,404 votes, which is a considerable reduction from the first-reported count of just under 30,000.
At this point it is unclear as to whether the current tally includes the illegal votes that four Philadelphia metro county officials said they were going to count regardless of the state Supreme Court’s ruling disqualifying them. The Supreme Court has since reaffirmed its ruling, and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) followed by issuing a statement supporting the court. Therefore, it is possible that the McCormick total could rise before the recount.
The recount is scheduled for completion by Nov. 26, with the report going to the Secretary of the Commonwealth by Nov. 27. The odds of overturning a multi-thousand vote margin on a recount are long, so it is highly likely that Mr. McCormick will be sworn into the Senate when Congress convenes in January.
HOUSE
FL-1: Gaetz Replacement Contenders Making Moves
With resigned Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) vacating his congressional seat, two potential candidates are already making moves to enter the replacement special election. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), one of the more conservative members of the House, and State CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) look to become candidates when Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) schedules the special election.
With all the twists and turns that we have already witnessed, no future development can be considered certain.
FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election
Representative Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Mr. Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Mr. Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Mr. Waltz, who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.
Yesterday, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier General Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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