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SENATE
Massachusetts: Sen. Markey Will Seek Re-Election
Senator Ed Markey (D-MA), who has been in Congress since his first election to the House in 1976, announced that he will seek re-election to the Senate in 2026. Mr. Markey first won the Senate seat in a special election in 2013, replacing appointed Sen. Mo Cowan (D), who served as an interim after then-Sen. John Kerry (D) resigned to become Secretary of State in the second Obama Administration.
Senator Markey's biggest potential obstacle to re-election would be the Democratic primary. In 2020, he repelled a challenge from then-Rep. Joseph Kennedy, III, a race the Senator won with a 55-45% margin.
HOUSE
Outstanding Races: AK-At Large; CA-13; CA-45
The three outstanding House races are nearing conclusion and in the two California contests, the margins are now within the hundreds of votes instead of thousands.
In Alaska, the state is finally going to count the remaining ballots today and then announce Ranked Choice Voting totals when the calculations are completed. Going into the final counts, Republican Nick Begich, III leads two-term incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) by a 7,223-vote margin.
In California's 13th District, with a reported 95% of the vote counted, Rep. John Duarte's (R-Modesto) lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) has dropped to just 227 votes.
In Orange County's 45th CD, incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind her challenger, attorney Derek Tran (D), by 312 votes also with a reported 95% of the vote tabulated.
If the Democrats pull out both of the Golden State seats, while Begich holds in Alaska, the House party division will drop to 219R – 215D with the FL-1 seat of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) vacant. This assumes that the small margins for both incumbents who are likely headed to recounts, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), both hold.
GOVERNOR
California: Poll Assesses Harris Gov Chances
The University of California at Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies conducted one of its regular surveys of the Golden State electorate and, interestingly, asked a question about whether the respondents would support Vice President Kamala Harris for Governor of California in 2026. The survey was conducted from Oct. 22-29 – even before the 2024 election had concluded – and included 4,341 registered voters who participated through an online questionnaire.
It is possible that Ms. Harris' numbers today would be less than reported here, considering her subsequent defeat at the national level, though she did earn 58.7% of the vote in California.
In any event, Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), an unsuccessful 2022 US Senate candidate, leads the 2026 gubernatorial jungle primary ballot test that did not directly include Ms. Harris. Within the tightly-bunched group, Rep. Porter places first, with 13% preference over Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and GOP state Senator and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Dahle. The two have 12 and 11% support, respectively. In third place – all with 7% support – are a trio of Democrats: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
When asked if the respondents would consider supporting Ms. Harris, 46% said they would be likely (33%) or somewhat likely (13%) to do so. A total of 42%, however, said not too likely (6%) or not at all likely (36%).
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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