If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
NATIONAL
Popular Vote Count: Trump Could Secure Majority Support
All of the states – with the exception of Alaska, California, Oregon and Washington – have only a smattering of overseas votes left to be received and counted, with the Golden State, of course, having the largest contingent of remaining uncounted ballots.
California, because it verifies every signature for mailed ballots, always takes weeks to finalize its election results. Approximately 3.5 million votes are outstanding in the four states.
President-Elect Trump’s margin will recede when these states are fully counted, but he is likely to carry the popular vote with at least a 2 million-vote edge, and potentially secure majority support nationwide.
He currently sits at 50.11%, with over 75.7 million votes, while Kamala Harris tallies 48.0%, for a total of 72.65 million votes. The total turnout looks to exceed 154 million, making it the second-largest turnout in American history. Only 2020, with just over 158.5 million ballots cast, would be larger.
SENATE
Pennsylvania: Recount Ordered
Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt announced yesterday that the US Senate results featuring Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) will move to a mandated recount because the difference between the two leaders is less than half a percentage point. Under Pennsylvania election law, recounts are mandated when the vote margin is less than a half point.
Mr. Schmidt says the final count in each county must be completed before the recount begins no later than Nov. 20. The political overtime count must conclude by Nov. 26, with the final report sent to the Secretary’s office on Nov. 27.
The ruling is somewhat curious in that the counties have apparently not finished the counting process, so it is presumed that should the final unofficial count grow to a margin greater than half a percent, the recount will be cancelled.
The reported results and percentages are: McCormick: 3,380,310 (48.93%); Casey 3,350,972 (48.50%). The McCormick margin is 29,338 votes.
HOUSE
Alaska: Not Anytime Soon
With so many ballots still outstanding in Alaska from those mailed but not received; the overseas ballots; the four unreported precincts; and the provisional ballots from around the state; it is likely that we won’t have a projection on the at-large Alaska House race until Nov. 20, the deadline for the state to report the unofficial final results. The Alaska election certification deadline is Nov. 30.
At this point, Republican Nick Begich, III has a 10,133 vote-lead over US Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). Mr. Begich stands at 49.6% of the counted vote versus Rep. Peltola’s 45.6%.
The number of uncounted or unreceived ballots could be as high as 70,000 votes, but more likely around 50,000. Should no candidate receive 50% plus one vote once the final count is announced, the Ranked Choice Voting round would then begin.
While Mr. Begich’s lead is significant, there are certainly enough outstanding votes to close the gap. Suggestions are that Mr. Begich is favored to hold, but the end result is still far from complete.
California: Four Races Uncalled
The remaining California races yet to be called are the following: District 9 (Rep. Josh Harder (D) vs. Kevin Lincoln (R)); District 13 (Rep. John Duarte (R) vs. Adam Gray (D)); District 21 (Rep. Jim Costa (D) vs. Michael Maher (R)); and District 45 (Rep. Michelle Steel (R) vs. Derek Tran (D)).
Representatives Harder and Costa, leading by 7,091 and 5,539 votes, respectively, are expected to soon be declared winners. Representative Duarte leads his race by 3,122 votes. Projections suggest, assuming the counties will break in the outstanding vote category as they did within the counted votes, that Rep. Duarte will break even among the uncounted votes, thus securing re-election.
Representative Steel leads by 2,272 votes meaning Mr. Tran will have to score approximately 53% of the vote from the remaining ballot pool to deny her re-election.
The most likely scenario, though nothing is guaranteed, is that all four incumbents successfully win re-election.
FL-1: Rep. Gaetz AG-Designee; Resigns Seat
In a developing story, President-Elect Trump said yesterday that he will nominate controversial Florida US Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville; Pensacola) as the next US Attorney General. Mr. Gaetz then immediately announced his resignation from the House.
With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body.
Much more on this situation to come.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Please join us in praying and fighting for Souls and Liberty; as well as, consider making a donation to support our work.