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SENATE
Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement
Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.
With President-Elect Trump already selecting two US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor, none of the state's 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment, since the new House majority is expected to be small. Topping the potential appointee list instead are Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva.
Governor DeSantis will fill the vacancy once Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter's confirmation as Secretary of State. The new Senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Senator Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.
Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration
On Tuesday, President-Elect Trump appointed GOP former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to co-direct, along with Elon Musk, a new official government efficiency operation; Ramaswamy has since confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect JD Vance in the US Senate.
Mr. Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as Vice President on Jan. 20. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Because Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed Senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028, when the seat next comes in-cycle.
HOUSE
CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia
Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7% margin in the state's 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made on Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia has conceded the election.
The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district, making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.
Representative Garcia first won a differently-configured district, numbered 25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Mr. Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).
CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat
Democratic state Senator Dave Min (D-Irvine) has recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state Assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R), capturing California's open 47th District by a margin of 50.9 – 49.1%, according to a projection made on Tuesday.
Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6, the presidential election year turnout model was too much for Mr. Baugh to overcome.
The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain – four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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