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PRESIDENT
President Biden Reaffirms Candidacy
After withstanding calls to withdraw from the national race, President Biden issued a statement during the July 4 weekend affirming that he will stay in the race and intends to wage a strong campaign. The Democratic National Committee is reportedly continuing preparations to renominate the President through a virtual roll call vote, targeted for August 7.
Democrat Governors Back Biden for Strategic Gain
Many Democratic Governors met in person or virtually with Biden during the height of calls for him to step down, affirming their support for the beleaguered president.
Immediately following the meeting, three leading voices among Democrats — Tim Walz (MN), Kathy Hochul (NY) and Wes Moore (MD) — jointly expressed their support for President Biden. Governors Gavin Newsom (CA) and Gretchen Whitmer (MI) released individual statements expressing their support for the President and his re-election the following day.
The motivation on the part of the latter two is not necessarily without hope of personal gain. If Biden stepped down and Vice President Kamala Harris were to take his place, she would be favored for the 2028 presidential nomination.
However, if President Biden remains in the race, the '28 nomination process would be open, putting Newsom and Whitmer on better footing to vie for the presidential nomination. Putting Harris in the limelight by calling for Biden's resignation then is of no benefit to the potential presidential contenders.
Swing-State Polling: Biden Rebounds, But Trump Leads
Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data from July 1-5 in the seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Though the polling showed Biden rebounding from the debate, the data revealed that if the election were held today, former President Trump would convert four states (AZ, GA, NV, PA) and keep North Carolina, which would give him a total of 287 electoral votes (far beyond the 270 needed to claim the Presidency).
HOUSE
Missouri: Cori Bush Gains Democrat Leader's Support
Over the July 4 holiday, St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) endorsed Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) in the Congresswoman's bid for renomination. Bush faces a strong challenge from former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell.
Rep. Bush is viewed as highly vulnerable in the Democratic primary. However, unlike when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was denied renomination on June 25, the House Democratic leadership is coming to her aid in a show of unity.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), and House Democratic Conference Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA) all signed a group endorsement statement for the Congresswoman.
While Rep. Bowman's defeat appeared evident for several weeks, the St. Louis Democratic battle looks to be a much tighter contest. Heavy outside spending is again present in this race, but not to the degree that was seen at a commensurate point against Rep. Bowman. This is still a battle to watch. Rep. Bush, while vulnerable, is in a stronger political position than her fallen "Squad" colleague.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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