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SENATE
Arizona: Lake Wins in Unimpressive Fashion
Yesterday was primary day in Arizona, and the Senate race is now set for the November campaign. There was no mystery on the Democratic side, as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) was unopposed in his primary election. Much of the drama from the race evaporated when Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema decided not to seek re-election for a second term. A three-way general election would have sent the campaign in unpredictable directions.
On the Republican side, as expected, former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake won the open Senate GOP nomination, but her victory margin over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb was far from overwhelming. Though the results won't be final for some time – probably weeks from now, under the modern system of mail balloting – the current numbers find Lake with only a 53-41% edge over Sheriff Lamb.
While enough votes have been tabulated – more than 500,000 out of a total that is expected to exceed 700,000 votes – the Lake victory appears assured, but the fact that approximately 47% of Republicans supported another candidate is not what she needed to enhance her underdog chances against Rep. Gallego.
HOUSE
Arizona: Congressional Primary Results
Hotly-contested congressional primaries were decided last night, and in at least two cases competitive general elections will follow.
In the tight 1st District, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) was renominated in the Republican primary, but with a lesser 63% against a pair of minor opponents who barely spent more than $100,000 apiece. The district slightly favors Republicans, but we can again expect a major general election battle in this Phoenix suburban district.
For the Democrats, who featured a highly-competitive five-way primary, it appears that former state Representative and physician Amish Shah, who resigned from the legislature to concentrate on his congressional campaign has presumptively claimed the Democratic nomination, despite lagging in the published polling. With about three-quarters of the vote counted, Dr. Shah has a three-point lead over race favorite Andrei Cherni, the former Arizona Democratic Party chairman; this translates to a margin of more than 1,500 votes – probably enough to clinch the nomination. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, widow of the late Attorney General Grant Woods (D), is a close third – fewer than 600 votes behind Mr. Cherni.
In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) – one of the leaders in the movement to oust former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – saw no after-effects of his action, as he easily won renomination over former Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith with almost 79% of the vote at this writing. Representative Crane will now glide through the general election in this safe Republican district that covers most of eastern Arizona.
In District 3, the predicted close contest to succeed Rep. Gallego materialized. With outside support from a pro-crypto currency PAC and the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC (DMFI), it appears that former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari has edged out former state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. Ansari has a 1,403-vote lead with approximately three-quarters of the vote counted. Though not yet projected, it appears Ansari is in the driver's seat to win the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) was easily renominated against minor Republican opposition, but his 62% total, which will likely grow when all votes are counted, is not what the Congressman would have preferred. He will again face a tough challenge in the general election from his 2022 opponent, former state Senator Kirsten Engel (D). This race was decided by just 5,232 votes two years ago, so another close finish in the southeastern 6th CD is again forecast.
With Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) retiring from Congress and easily winning the Republican nomination for her Maricopa County Supervisorial district last night, the 8th District became host to a very nasty Republican primary battle. The subject of most of the attacks, however, 2022 Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh – who lost the statewide election by only 280 votes from more than 2.5 million ballots cast – appears to have won the GOP nomination to succeed Lesko.
With two-thirds of the vote counted, Hamadeh leads 2022 US Senate candidate Blake Masters by almost 4,700 votes. State House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Peoria) is just 818 votes behind Masters, while former US Rep. Trent Franks trails in fourth place — some five percentage points behind the race leader. Assuming Hamadeh's lead holds, he will be heavily favored to win the general election in November.
UT-2: Recount Requested
Like in the VA-5 Republican primary, the UT-2 GOP race simply won't come to an end. While Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) has requested a recount of his certified 374-vote loss to state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sadot), now businessman Colby Jenkins (R) has formally requested a recount of his 214-vote primary loss to Utah US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City).
The Good recount will begin on Thursday, and chances are small that again going through the ballots after the post-canvass process will overturn the results. Under Utah law, since the 214-vote margin is within the spread that allows a candidate to request a recount, this process could last as long as August 5. Keep in mind that the Virginia primary was June 18th, and the Utah vote occurred a week later on June 25.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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