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PRESIDENT
Democratic National Committee Schedules Virtual Vote
Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison has announced that the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.
The voting period will occur over multiple days, culminating with an August 7 deadline, or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago.
At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.
The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention, which could bring chaos. It also gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning and allows it to make the convention a unifying event.
Trump Pollster Predicting a Harris Bump
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Kamala Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Trump to consistent small leads.
In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released.
Including the Independent and minor party candidates, an RMG Research survey (7/22-23; 2,000 US registered voters; online) sees Trump holding a two-point, 48-46% edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (7/22-23; 1,018 US registered voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38% spread.
Finally, YouGov polling for The Economist (7/21-23; 1,435 US registered voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41%.
We can expect to see close, but inconsistent, polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.
SENATE
Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues
A new poll of the Keystone state confirms again a pattern that is troubling Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.
North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC, tested the Pennsylvania electorate earlier this week. While some respondents were interviewed before President Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a 47-45% margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41% spread over Republican challenger David McCormick.
The combined totals suggest a net ten-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.
HOUSE
NM-2: Another Cliffhanger
After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3–49.7% margin.
A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign, finds the former Congresswoman clutching to a 48-46% edge over Rep. Vasquez.
At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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