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SENATE
Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls
Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) has announced that he is abandoning his campaign, and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The Congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
Meanwhile, a pair of recent polls examining the race have yielded considerably different results.
While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; 7/13-17; 600 MI registered voters), sees the Congresswoman posting a three-point lead over Rogers, 43-40%.
Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (7/17-18; 650 MI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38% result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.
Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta
Three pollsters recently surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error.
The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (7/20-21; 500 PA likely voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a ten-point lead over McCormick, 50-40%, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46%.
Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (7/17-18; 624 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result, with Sen. Casey ahead by 11 points, 50-39%.
Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph; 7/16-18; 688 PA likely voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test, and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37% with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.
HOUSE
VA-5: Post-Election Process Drags On
Soon after state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) was certified the Republican primary winner by a 374-vote margin, his opponent, Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), announced he would finance a recount.
The election authorities have now said that they won't begin the recount until Aug. 1, and that Good would be charged $97,000 for the process. Should the recount turn the election in Good's favor, however, he would not be charged.
The chances of an overturn remain slim.
STATES
Montana Qualifies Two Election Change Propositions
Unless the Secretary of State's appeal of a judicial ruling that allows inactive voter signatures to count toward initiative qualification is successful, it appears that Montana voters will vote on two measures to alter their nomination system.
As will occur in Idaho, this year's Montana proposition would change the partisan primary system to a top-four jungle primary, as found in Alaska. The Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system that is part of the Alaska law, however, is not included here. The legislature and Governor enacted a law to ban the RCV in all Montana elections.
The second measure would require candidates to have majority support to secure election to a public office, but does not specify what will happen for those contests that end in a plurality result.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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