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PRESIDENT
CBS News: Poll Yields Strongest Trump National Lead
The new national CBS News/YouGov survey finds former President Trump holding his largest lead over President Biden, with Vice President Kamala Harris not faring any better. According to the nationwide ballot test, Trump would top President Biden, 52-47%, in the popular vote count, while VP Harris trails the former President by a similar 51-48% result.
YouGov also asked a hypothetical question in a different flash poll. Its previous survey queried the respondents whether they would prefer President Biden or Vice President Harris in the Democratic primary. By a nine-point spread, 46-37%, the respondents favored the incumbent President.
While the result may be interesting, it is not well targeted. A more valuable poll would have expanded the size of the universe and concentrated solely on Democratic registered voters.
SENATE
Arizona: Lake Pulls Ahead
In the first published Arizona Senate poll since March to show a Republican edge, a JL Partners survey sees former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Kari Lake taking a small, one-point lead over US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), 44-43%.
The split we have seen in other states, where former President Trump is well ahead of President Biden while the Senate candidate lags behind, is also present here; but Trump's margin is large enough, 46-40%, that the two-point drop-off between Trump and Lake does not deny the latter the Senate race lead.
The Arizona campaign is definitely a contest to monitor throughout the remaining time in the current election cycle.
HOUSE
MI-10: Rep. James Trailing in Questionable Poll
The Target Insyght polling organization conducted a survey for the Deadline Detroit news website that finds Michigan's 10th District Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills) trailing his 2022 opponent by a substantial margin.
The poll reveals some head-scratching numbers, which spur reliability questions.
The ballot test shows Rep. James' Democratic 2022 opponent, former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga (D), leading the Congressman 49-43%, despite the fact that Marlinga has a 10:1 financial deficit compared to James.
The poll has many flaws, such as blacks favoring Republican James, men favoring Marlinga, and women slightly backing the GOP incumbent.
Most of the information found in this Target Insyght poll simply doesn't make sense and should be considered unreliable. Expect the James campaign to soon counter this data with a poll of its own to set the record straight.
STATES
Nevada: Top-Five Ranked Choice Initiative Qualifies for Ballot
A ballot proposition to change the Nevada primary to a top-five jungle primary system has qualified for the November ballot.
In Nevada, ballot propositions must pass two different electorates to become effective, and this will be the second time the Top-Five Ranked Choice Voting initiative comes before the voters.
In 2022, the measure passed with a 53-47% result. This time, however, the opposition will spend heavily, already booking $15 million in media time, to block the ballot proposition.
The opponents have an interesting coalition. Not only are prominent Republicans such as US Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) against it, but Democratic US Senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen are, as well. The Nevada AFL-CIO also opposes the initiative. The proponents have $9 million in media advertising reserved.
The top-five system is based upon Alaska's top-four process. All candidates would be placed on one qualifying ballot, and the top five finishers would advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. If no one secures a majority in the general election, the Ranked Choice system then takes effect.
Unlike in Alaska, however, the Nevada top-five will not be in effect for presidential races. The Ranked Choice System, where used more often than not, elects a political minority candidate as opposed to a plurality winner. That's because the people voting for the last place finishers in each round receive an additional vote.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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