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PRESIDENT
Sen. JD Vance: Trump-Vance 2024
Former President Donald Trump has chosen Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate for the 2024 election. The past day has seen much analysis about the Vance selection, but what is the Ohio process to fill a vacant Senate seat if the Trump-Vance ticket is elected?
Just before being sworn in as Vice President, Sen. Vance would resign his seat. Vance was elected in 2022 and will again be in-cycle in 2028. Therefore, since Ohio is one of 36 states that allows gubernatorial appointments to fill vacancies, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then choose a replacement until the next general election.
This means the individual chosen will be appointed in 2025 and face the electorate for a confirmation vote in the 2026 election. Assuming the appointed individual wants to seek election to the seat, the person would run in 2026 to fill the balance of the term, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint.
SENATE
Michigan: Ex-Rep. Rogers Up in Primary Poll
Former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers, now a candidate for the Republican Senate nomination, yesterday released an internal Tarrance Group survey of 500 Michigan likely Republican primary voters.
The ballot test finds Rogers breaking the 50% threshold (52%) — substantially ahead of former US Rep. Justin Amash (Libertarian) and businessman Sandy Pensler, both of whom garnered 14% support, as well as physician Sherry O'Donnell, who posted a 5% preference.
The Michigan primary is August 6. The Republican primary winner will almost assuredly face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms.
Pennsylvania: Siena College/NYT New Statewide Survey
A new Siena College/New York Times Keystone State poll again reports a major difference between the presidential and Senatorial preferences.
According to this data, former President Trump holds a 48-45% edge when leaners are included, and 42-40% on the definitive vote.
The Senate race, however, tells a much different partisan story. In this poll, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) holds a lead beyond the polling margin of error over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), 50-42%, or a net 11-point swing from the Trump support figure to Casey's.
This type of pattern has been consistent in most Senate races — with Trump leading a particular state count, while the GOP Senate candidate lags well behind the party standard bearer's benchmark polling totals.
The poll was taken two days before the assassination attempt on Trump, so it will be interesting to see if the next set of polling results move in his favor to an even greater degree.
HOUSE
MN-2: GOP Unifies Before Primary
With the Minnesota primary approaching on August 13, the GOP will now become united behind 2nd District congressional candidate Joe Teirab, a former federal prosecutor. Yesterday, Teirab's primary opponent, attorney Taylor Rahm, announced he was leaving the race to accept a position with the national Trump campaign.
Defeating incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) will be a tall task, even in a swing district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+1. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 14th most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference. In the last two elections, Rep. Craig garnered 50.9% and 48.2%, respectively, so she will certainly be a GOP conversion target this year.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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