Political Roundup — July 12, 2024

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PRESIDENT

Vice President Harris: Polling Against Trump 

As many Democrats and media elites attempt to convince President Biden to withdraw from the race, we are beginning to see Trump-Harris polls surfacing. So far, these surveys show mixed results. 

The new Ipsos poll for ABC News/Washington Post finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump, 49-47%.

An Emerson College survey, however, projects Trump holding a six-point lead over Harris, 49-43%.  

YouGov, polling for The Economist, sees Trump posting a four-point, 42-38%, edge. 

Therefore, the idea that Ms. Harris is a stronger opponent for Mr. Trump than President Biden has yet to be proven.

HOUSE

IA-3: Dead Heat 

Iowa's 3rd District is one of the tightest seats in the country. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+2, while Dave's Redistricting App reports a partisan lean of 49.8R-47.2D.  Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) unseated then-Rep. Cindy Axne (D) with a 49.6–48.9% result in 2022. This year, the Congressman's opponent is former Department of Agriculture official Lanan Baccam (D). 

The Baccam campaign just publicized a GQR Research poll that rather unsurprisingly shows the race to be a dead heat, with each man posting 43% support. This race, again, promises to produce one of the tighter finishes in the nation.

MN-7: Rep. Fischbach's Big Lead 

At the Minnesota Republican convention, delegates awarded the party endorsement to businessman Steve Boyd over incumbent Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Regal). This, however, does not appear to be thwarting the Congresswoman's drive for renomination. The Cygnal polling group conducted a survey of Rep. Fischbach's 7th District and finds the Congresswoman leading Mr. Boyd by a whopping 64-14%.  

In states where the party apparatus makes official primary endorsements, we often see that the end result of the succeeding vote is contrary to the endorsement decision. Such definitely appears to be the case here, as Rep. Fischbach appears in a strong position as the candidates move toward the August 13 Minnesota primary. For the general election, in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+37, the Republican primary winner is a lock to win in November.

STATES

Idaho: Top Four Qualifies for Ballot 

Idaho officials yesterday announced that the initiative to adopt the Alaska-style Top 4 primary system has qualified for the ballot. Idaho voters will have the opportunity of instituting the system in November, which would transform their partisan primary into an all-party jungle ballot where the top four finishers would advance to the general election.  

We can expect the Republican leadership to oppose the system. The Alaska procedure has created a system where a Democrat can win in a Republican state — for example, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) winning an Alaska election where 60% of the people voted for a GOP candidate. Not surprisingly, the Democratic leadership backs the effort.  

In the general election, instead of voting for one candidate, individuals will rank their selections from 1 to 4. If no one receives majority support, the Ranked Choice rounds begin, starting with eliminating the last-place finisher. At that point, election officials must add the last-place voters' second choice to the aggregate — a process that will continue until someone cobbles together a majority vote with the aid of second- and sometimes third-choice votes.  

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

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