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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup — July 11, 2024

Updated: Jul 23

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PRESIDENT

 

President Biden: Still in the Driver's Seat 

 

While pressure continues to mount on President Biden to withdraw from his re-election candidacy, some still believe there is a way to change the rules at the Democratic National Convention to allow a free vote of the delegates. 

 

Doing so will be highly unlikely, however, because Biden's total delegate vote includes 1,581 individuals bound not by party rules, but rather, state law. Therefore, those delegates will not be free. 

 

To win the party nomination, a candidate must have 1,968 votes. This means from the remaining delegates, the President would need only to keep 387 of the "freed" 2,368 delegates who are already pledged to vote for him. This factors into just 16.3% of the non-state law bound delegates.

 

The party would also have the option of changing the convention rules to allow the Super Delegates to vote on the first ballot, something they cannot currently do. The Super Delegates are officially called PLEO (Party Leader Elected Official) votes. There are 747 of these individuals. 

 

To add them, however, the non-PLEO delegates would have to vote to dilute their own power. It is unlikely a majority of the non-PLEO delegates will vote in such a manner even if this unlikely choice is presented.


HOUSE

 

New York: Biden's Poll Deficit 

 

The political situation continues to deteriorate for President Biden.

 

As reported on X by journalist Jacqueline Sweet, Democratic polls that won't be published apparently report that the President is trailing in two potential Democratic conversion districts by double-digit margins — seats that he carried in 2020.

 

The two are NY-17 and NY-19, which freshmen Reps. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) currently represent, and won with close margins.

 

As a point of reference, Biden carried the 17th with a 54-44% margin in 2020, and a 51-47% split in NY-19.

  

UT-2: Canvass Period Begins; Recount to Follow 

 

Utah US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) is not out of the woods yet from her close June 25 Republican primary race against businessman Colby Jenkins.  

 

State election officials finally finished the end count, and what was a 309-vote margin for Maloy has dropped to 214 votes.

 

The process is not yet finished. The election staff must conduct a canvass to certify a final vote. Since the current margin is now within the range where a recount can be requested, Jenkins says he will do so after the canvass.

 

This means the counting and recounting process could drag on until the end of July. 


STATES

 

Delaware: Candidate Filing Closes

 

Candidate filing has now closed for the late Delaware primary scheduled for Sept. 10. Though the state features an open Senate and at-large House seat, little in the way of competition will be seen either in the Democratic primary or general election. 

 

US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) is a lock for the party nomination as well as the November election, and will replace retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D) in the next Congress. 

 

State Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) is the prohibitive favorite to win the party primary and the November election to replace Rep. Blunt Rochester. Upon election, McBride will become the first transgender individual elected to Congress.

 

The only competition appears to occur in the open Governor's race, as incumbent John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Lieutenant Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer, and National Wildlife Federation CEO Collin O'Mara are all competing for the Democratic nomination.

 

The eventual primary winner will then punch his or her ticket to the Governor's mansion.

 

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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