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SENATE
Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew
Earlier, we reported that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R); and now, state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has announced he will challenge the Senator.
Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state's new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette), who just won a fifth US House term with 71% of the vote.
The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.
The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.
New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign
New Jersey caretaker Senator George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, has announced that he will resign on Sunday.
Senator Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy.
There are likely to be important lame duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.
HOUSE
CA-13: Gray Wins
Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California's 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman US Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Representative Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.
The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House, and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions.
It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.
GOVERNOR
Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces
Michigan will host one of 15 open Governor's races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan – who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year – is serving his third term, having been originally elected at the end of 2013. Yesterday, the Mayor became the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for Governor next year.
Duggan is viewed as an effective Mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state's largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026.
Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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