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HOUSE
CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes
The agonizingly slow vote-counting process in northern California's 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.
It is now likely, however, that Mr. Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow.
If Mr. Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.
IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory
The recount in Iowa's 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term.
The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Ms. Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin.
Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the Congresswoman's career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798-vote win is a landslide in comparison.
MA-6: Rep. Moulton's (D) Potential Primary
Massachusetts US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.
Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston Mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan), but then rebounded to win a town Supervisor race in the Andover locality. Mr. Koh was quoted yesterday saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.
Mr. Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The Congressman will be favored in the next election irrespective of who opposes him.
STATES
Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered
Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska's chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative.
By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state's Top Four / Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.
A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1% while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9%. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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