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SENATE
Iowa: Potential Ernst Primary Challenge
Conservative Iowa radio talk show host Steve Deace (R) is confirming that he is considering challenging Sen. Joni Ernst in the 2026 Republican primary, but says he will step aside if a stronger MAGA candidate comes forward. Some from the party's right flank indicate those activists are encouraging state Attorney General Brenna Bird to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Ernst. State Auditor Rob Sand is another Republican said to be considering entering the Senate race.
Some of this talk may die since Sen. Ernst has agreed to support Defense Secretary-designate Pete Hegseth in his Senate confirmation battle, but it certainly remains to be seen what might develop in the Hawkeye State primary.
GOVERNOR
Arizona: Rep. Ciscomani Won't Run for Governor
Arizona US Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) announced yesterday that he will not enter the 2026 Governor's race to oppose first-term Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Mr. Ciscomani is the second Republican House member this week to forego a race for Governor in order to stay and protect the small and fragile GOP majority. The other is Oklahoma US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa).
Representative Ciscomani has won two close races in the southeastern Arizona 6th District seat that touches the Mexican border and New Mexico. He is viewed as one of the rising stars in the Arizona delegation and is likely a statewide candidate in the future. His politically marginal district will once again be highly competitive in 2026, so Rep. Ciscomani can expect another tough race.
New Jersey: New Poll Posts Rep. Sherrill in Lead for '25 Gov Race
The Laborer's International Union of North America has released the results of its recent Upswing Research and Strategy poll and found Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) jumping out to an early lead in the 2025 open race to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
According to the release, Ms. Sherrill commands 23% support, with 30% listed as undecided. Following are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka with 13%, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) at 10%, and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney each posting 8% support. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller rounds out the Democratic field with 7% backing from the primary voters' sample.
The poll may be a bit skewed, however, since it was conducted directly after Rep. Sherrill announced her intentions in a statewide media swing. In any event, we can expect a hotly contested Democratic primary campaign to conclude in early June.
For the Republicans, 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Murphy to a 51-48% re-election victory, is running again. His principal GOP opponents are state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield) and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.
Tennessee: Senator Looking at Governor?
Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn (R) won a resounding 64-34% victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, she continues to run ads after the election. Governor Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is running television ads after her election suggests she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor's race.
The gubernatorial Republican primary promises to be hard-fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk that the state's junior Senator, Bill Hagerty (R), is also weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.
It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it's possible she could freeze the field. The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name recognition and favorability ratings suggests that seeing her jump into the Governor's race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Ms. Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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