If you value articles like this, sign up for our daily email newsletter and support us with a donation.
HOUSE
CA-45: Already Competitive
Democratic attorney Derek Tran unseated California GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) by 653 votes from more than 315,000 votes cast; and even before he takes office, potential future opponents are beginning to test the political waters.
Representative Steel has already filed a 2026 FEC campaign committee. Likewise, it was reported on Wednesday that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen (R) is already examining the possibility of forming a congressional campaign committee. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the CA-45 district as D+5, though it has been stronger for Republicans in the past two congressional campaigns.
Irrespective of the statistics, it is clear that California’s 45th CD will be a major battleground district in 2026.
WI-3: Double Re-Match Potential
Wisconsin US Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) defeated businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) by a 51-49% margin to win a second congressional term in November. Ms. Cooke is being reported as saying she is considering seeking a re-match in 2026. Additionally, former state Senator Brad Pfaff (D), who held Mr. Van Orden to a 51.8% victory back in 2022, indicates that he is “open” to making another run in 2026.
It already appears certain that this Wisconsin district will host another competitive congressional race in two years. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates WI-3 as R+9, but it has voted differently in congressional races.
Mr. Van Orden has averaged just 51.5% of the vote in his two elections, and former Rep. Ron Kind (D) won 13 consecutive elections in the southwestern Wisconsin district. Therefore, we can expect another highly competitive race here in 2026.
STATES
Alaska: Ranked Choice Repeal Initiative Officially Fails
Voters considered repealing Alaska’s top four jungle primary system, and the end result proved razor thin. Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), the state’s chief elections officer, called for a recount of the final vote and the result was just released.
The secondary count confirmed that the repeal measure was defeated, by an official 743 votes from a voter turnout of over 321,000 individuals.
The final tally means the present system of having a jungle primary – which sends four individuals regardless of political party affiliation to the general election and the Ranked Choice Voting system deciding any plurality result – will continue.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
Comments