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Writer's pictureJim Ellis

Political Roundup – December 11, 2024

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SENATE


California: Schiff Takes Office   


There is a bit of confusion surrounding California US Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. 


In November, Mr. Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41%, for the regular term. Yet, Sen-Elect Schiff is already sworn into office. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Ms. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.  


Mr. Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California's long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified. Therefore, Gov. Newsom appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.  


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Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January 


Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term "after the first of the year." 


Now 80 years of age, Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.


South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge 


Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor's race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the '26 Republican Senatorial primary.


In 2014, Ms. Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2% of the statewide vote. Senator Graham won that primary with 56% of the vote. 


While it is clear Ms. Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham, who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.  


Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Mr. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.


GOVERNOR


Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race 


Pennsylvania US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.  


Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting if Mr. Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.


Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.


Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.


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