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PRESIDENT
Debates: Conflicting Messages
We are again seeing conflicting statements about who is debating when and where. Former President Trump announced yesterday that there will be three debates – on Sept. 4 (Fox News), Sept. 10 (NBC News) and Sept. 25 (ABC News). Vice President Harris indicated that she is pleased that "… Donald Trump has finally committed to debating me on September 10."
It is unlikely that Harris will appear on Fox News, and there is a story indicating Trump's lawyers have told the former President that he cannot debate on ABC because they are involved in an active lawsuit against the network. Therefore, the only common ground appears to be on Sept. 10, meaning NBC News' reporters will moderate.
SENATE
Montana: First Harris Poll; Sheehy Still Leads
The first Montana poll featuring Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee has been released. Emerson College tested the Big Sky electorate and found that Trump's lead in the state has remained relatively consistent when pitted against Harris versus President Biden.
The new numbers project Trump leading Harris, 55-40%. The Senate pattern is a
familiar one, found here and in other competitive states – that is, the Republican Senatorial candidate running substantially behind Trump's standing. In this case, however, retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) continues to forge a small lead over three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D).
The ballot test for the Montana Senate campaign found Sheehy posting a slight 48-46% edge over Tester. With the Trump margin expected to grow as the campaign matures, Sheehy's position should improve, as well. Therefore, this Senate race has strong potential to flip from D to R. Doing so would clinch an outright majority in the new Senate. Coupled with West Virginia, which is a sure flip, a Montana victory would give the GOP at least 51 seats.
HOUSE
AZ-1: Shah Declared Dem Winner
As the Arizona ballot verification and counting process slowly continues, another race has been officially called. Physician and former state Representative Amish Shah (D), who led throughout the counting process, has defeated former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andre Cherni and ex-television journalist Marlene Galan-Woods to claim the party nomination. Shah only captured 23.5% of the vote in the crowded field, but the total was enough to score a plurality victory.
Shah finished two points ahead of both Cherni and Galan-Woods. The latter two were separated by only 106 votes. The count is still not final, but Shah's margin over his two closest competitors is larger than the number of ballots that remain uncounted. Therefore, Shah will advance into the general election to wage a competitive battle against veteran Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in a district that only leans Republican.
MI-8: Candidate Released Poll Showing Her Trailing
A rather surprising poll was released from a new Democratic congressional nominee. State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), who won the open 8th District Democratic primary with 53.3% of the vote, just released her internal Global Strategy Group poll, and it shows her trailing new Republican nominee Paul Junge, 44-45%.
Releasing data that shows the principal trailing is curious, considering that Democratic
primary turnout was seven percentage points (58.5%) higher than the Republican
participation factor. This number appears even stronger when compared with the
statewide turnout partisan division. In the overall Michigan primary, the Democratic
turnout advantage only reached 51.5%.
The argument for releasing the virtual dead-heat data was that Junge, a former news anchorman and two-time Republican nominee, has better name identification throughout the district than Sen. Rivet. While this is a valid point, the turnout favoring
Rivet's party to a large degree suggests that her standing should be stronger.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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