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PRIMARY RESULTS
Kansas: Schmidt Clinches GOP Primary
In Kansas’ open 2nd District, former Attorney General and ex-Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt easily won the open Republican nomination. Schmidt was topping the 53% mark in a field of five candidates. The former statewide official is now a clear favorite to win the general election and keep the seat in the Republican column.
For the Democrats, former US Rep. Nancy Boyda won a close primary, with just over 51% of the vote in her political comeback attempt. Advancing to the general election, Boyda will be a severe underdog to Schmidt in a 2nd District that is much different than the seat she represented for one term 16 years ago. Two-term Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) chose not to seek re-election.
Michigan: No Surprises
In the open Senate race, both Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) won landslide victories in their respective primaries. A tight general election is expected between these two top-performing candidates.
The House races concluded as expected.
In what is sure to be a toss-up general election campaign, both former state Senators Tom Barrett (R) and Curtis Hertel (D) were unopposed for their respective party nominations. The November battle will determine Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) successor.
In the competitive 8th District, as expected, state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and former news anchor and two-time congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) won their respective primaries. Both the 7th and 8th Districts will carry toss-up ratings into the general election. Overall Democratic turnout in the 8th CD was higher than the Republican participation rate, which is a good sign for Rivet, especially because, at this writing, GOP statewide turnout is higher than the Democratic number.
In the competitive 10th District, we will see a rematch between former judge and Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who easily topped a crowded Democratic field, and freshman Rep. John James (R-Fountain Hills).
In District 13, freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) turned back two Democratic challengers to virtually clinch a second term.
Missouri: Rep. Bush Unseated
In an expensive race where the incumbent was heavily outspent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell denied two-term Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) renomination by just over 6,800 votes. Representative Bush is the third incumbent to lose to an intraparty challenger, joining Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Bob Good (R-VA) as defeated incumbents. Representative Jerry Carl (R-AL) also lost his bid for renomination, but that race was an incumbent pairing due to a new redistricting map.
In the open 3rd District, in a race that winnowed to two former state Senators vying to replace retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth), Bob Onder, armed with an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, saw a late vote surge propel him over Kurt Schaefer for a Republican nomination win, which is tantamount to winning the November election.
In the open Governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe defeated state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a close three-way result. Kehoe advances into the general election as the favorite against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D-Springfield). Governor Mike Parson (R), who endorsed Lt. Gov. Kehoe, was ineligible to seek a third term.
Washington: Rep. Newhouse Trails in Jungle Primary
The Washington jungle primary featured a full slate of races. Senator Maria Cantwell (D) captured first place in the Senate race, with 58% at this writing. She will face Republican physician Raul Garcia in the general election. Cantwell is now a prohibitive favorite to capture a fifth term.
The competitive House races find five-term US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) fighting to finish second in the jungle primary and advance to the general election against retired NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler (R), who was one of two candidates former President Trump endorsed.
In the state’s southwestern District 3, Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) placed first over technology company executive Joe Kent (R), the man she upset in the general election in 2022. While she placed just over 10,000 votes ahead of Kent, the combined Republican turnout is almost 5,000 votes larger than the Democratic participation figure. Therefore, we can surmise that the Perez-Kent re-match will again end in close fashion, just as it did two years ago.
In the open 5th District, Spokane County Treasurer Mike Baumgartner (R), who had the backing of most conservative activists, placed first in the crowded jungle primary and will face Democrat Carmela Conroy, the Spokane County Democratic chair, in the general election. Because he drew a Democratic opponent in the general election in this safely Republican seat, Baumgartner is now the clear favorite to succeed retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane).
In the open 6th District, with candidates vying to succeed retiring six-term Representative Derek Kilmer (D-Gig Harbor), it appears that two state Senators – Emily Randall (D-Bremerton) and Drew MacEwen (R-Union) – will advance into the general election. State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) lies about 5,500 votes behind MacEwen. With a large percentage of the vote left unreceived and uncounted, this race is not yet over, but the early numbers suggest the order will not change.
In the Governor’s race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) easily outpaced former Congressman Dave Reichert (R), but both will advance to the general election. With Democrats comprising 56% of the early turnout figure, Ferguson will be difficult to defeat in the November election, especially with Vice President Harris likely to record a big Washington state win over former President Trump.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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