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PRESIDENT
Swing States: Ties Across the Board
International online pollster YouGov tested the presidential national electorate and voters in seven swing states on behalf of CBS News.
All of the ballot tests revealed polling spreads within the margin of error.
While Vice President Harris led former President Trump by one point nationally and held a two-point edge in Nevada, Trump held a three-point advantage in Georgia and North Carolina and a one-point edge in Wisconsin.
The two were tied in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The seven states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – have all been key battlegrounds over the last few elections.
It seems that despite the "Harris bump," the presidential race is about as close to even as an analyst can imagine.
HOUSE
Arizona's 3rd District: Long Counts Changing Numbers
Like in California, the Arizona ballot-counting process can now take weeks to be completed. One race that seems to be affected as the counting proceeds is the Democratic primary in the open 3rd Congressional District.
On election night, former Phoenix City Councilwoman Yassamin Ansari held a lead of slightly more than 1,400 votes over ex-state Senate Minority Leader Raquel Teran. The latest count, however, finds the Ansari lead has dropped to just 67 votes, with an undetermined number of ballots remaining to be counted. Therefore, this race cannot be considered finished.
All other Arizona primaries have projected winners. The 3rd District is an open seat because Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is running for the Senate.
Texas' 18th District: Nomination Replacement Calendar Set
The Harris County Democratic Party chairman announced that its members will conduct their vote to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) on August 13.
A large group of candidates is expected to compete for the members' votes. The winner will then replace Jackson Lee on the regular general election ballot.
Perhaps the leading candidate to replace the Congresswoman is former Houston Mayor
Sylvester Turner. Several state Representatives and Houston City Council members, both current and former, are also vying for the party nomination.
Jackson Lee's two children yesterday announced their support for Turner.
The Democratic nominee is a lock for the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+43.
STATES
Primary Election Day: Governor and Senate
Voters in four states – Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington – are casting their nomination ballots today.
The Missouri open Republican Governor's race is a toss-up affair between Lt. Gov. Mike
Kehoe and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft. The winner will become the odds-on favorite to replace term-limited Governor Mike Parson (R).
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley (R) will also have an official Democratic general election opponent tonight, probably attorney and Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce.
Turning to the Washington Governor's race, Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former Congressman and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) are expected to advance into the general election from today's jungle primary.
Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is on the ballot seeking a fifth term. She will easily advance into the general election from her state's jungle primary system.
The open Michigan Senate race will produce official nominees tonight, as well. They are almost assuredly Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) and ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R).
Primary Election Day: State House of Representatives
Open House races where a primary will likely determine the succeeding member are on the ballot in Kansas, Michigan (2 seats), Missouri, and Washington (2).
Michigan freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar should easily survive his Democratic nomination challenge. Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), however, is in a tough battle for renomination and may not politically survive.
In Washington, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) is expected to easily advance into the general election, but whether he will face a Democrat or a Republican in November will be answered tonight.
Finally, important challenger races will form tonight against Reps. Hillary Scholten (D-MI),
Bill Huizenga (R-MI), John James (R-MI), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA).
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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