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PRESIDENT
Cornel West: Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot
As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced yesterday that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state's requirements for ballot access. Therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate.
West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin – which could prove definitive.
West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Trump majority support.
SENATE
Florida: Another Close Survey
We've recently seen several polls indicating that Sen. Rick Scott (R) is in a close race against former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).
An Aug. 21-22 survey from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Scott with only a 48-45% lead over Mucarsel-Powell – this, just one month after the Florida primary election.
An Aug. 10-11 poll from Florida Atlantic University produced a similar result, yielding Scott an edge of 47-43% over his Democratic rival.
However, recent electoral and polling history tells us that it is not unusual for Democrats to perform well in Florida in August, as Republican strength begins to show itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn.
Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.
HOUSE
FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll
The case of Sen. Rick Scott (R) is instructive, as we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.
A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman US Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent, Whitney Fox, by four points. According to the poll – the first publicly-released survey since May – Fox leads Rep. Luna, 48-44%. This is a marked turnaround from the results of a May GQR survey for the Fox campaign, which showed Rep. Luna ahead, 51-46%.
A similar pattern, though with much less data, emerged during Rep. Luna's 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election survey of that contest – also from St. Pete Polls – found Luna leading her '22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by just one point, 46-45%; yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote.
Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected – in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.
NJ-9: Nominee Clinched
It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey US Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has begun.
After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration.
Therefore, it appears that Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey's 9th District in Democratic hands.
Editor's note: For resources on political action, including a downloadable Voter's Guide for Authentic Catholics provided by the Souls and Liberty Action Network, click here.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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