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PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: Concern over Ballot Status in Key States
On Friday, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) announced that he is suspending his campaign in battleground states. However, he will remain on the ballot in places where the race is less competitive. Which states will be considered as "battlegrounds," is the important next question.
It's clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – domains that all agree are battlegrounds.
However, Mr. Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which, under certain circumstances, could be key battlegrounds in certain scenarios.
Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the
outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska's 2nd
Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other
key battleground domains, it could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has
shown some close polling before President Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks?
Therefore, while Mr. Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Trump, his campaign could still affect the election.
HOUSE
Alaska At-Large: Dahlstrom Withdraws:
Republicans have scored a major break in the Alaska at-large Congressional race. Lieutenant Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the August 20 jungle primary (which ensured a spot in the general election under Alaska's top four voting system), announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign.
This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich, III, (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle. The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least an early general election slight favorite.
Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50% mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Mr. Begich's chances significantly increase.
There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too; however the individual's vote count is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.
New Jersey – 9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected
Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don't have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.
The potential candidates for the nomination are state Assembly members
Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), and Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh.
The committee members' choice will immediately become the favorite to succeed Mr. Pascrell.
The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45% victory margin in 2022.
STATES
New Hampshire
The University of New Hampshire conducted its regular Granite State poll in anticipation of the state's late Sept. 10 primary election.
As other data has shown, ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary
advantage over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. Ms. Ayotte leads Mr. Morse by a whopping 65-21% according to this poll.
On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former
Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Ms. Craig notches a 39-30% edge over
Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.
In New Hampshire's US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary, while in the crowded Republican primary, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Senator Russell Prescott holds a 19-10% advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur, with no other candidate reaching double digits.
In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden
Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former
Executive Council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern.
The split is 34-28%, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Mr. Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election.
On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17% edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and ten others.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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