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SENATE
Arizona: Closer Polling Results
The Arizona open Senate research data has been both consistent and inconsistent. The consistency lies in all pollsters finding US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), but the margin spread has been inconsistent.
The latest release, from WPA Intelligence, sees the Gallego edge only at 48-46%. Another four polls released in August, from four different pollsters, see the Gallego lead at 11, 9, 8, and 6 percentage points. A different study, from Peak Insights, surveying for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, projects the two candidates as tied. While the trends clearly favor Rep. Gallego, this is still a race that deserves political attention.
Montana: Tester Rebounds
After falling behind in polling since the end of June, the latest RMG Research poll, conducted for the Napolitan News Service, finds Sen. Jon Tester (D) pulling back into the lead. According to the RMG results, Sen. Tester posts a 49-44% advantage over Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and CEO for a Montana-based aerospace company.
The poll has a basic flaw, in that the sampling period is long (8 days), which leads to a higher error factor. It did provide several interesting data bits, however. As other polls have shown, former President Trump enjoys a wide lead over Vice President Kamala Harris – 53-35%, according to the RMG Research results. The results also see 16% of Trump voters peeling off to support Sen. Tester. Conversely, 17% of Tester's voters say they would prefer Republicans gaining control of the Senate. Asked how they would vote if they knew the Montana race would determine the next Senate majority, 55% said they would vote for the Republican candidate as compared to 37% who vowed to support the Democratic nominee.
HOUSE
AZ-1: A Desert Dead Heat
On the heels of former state Representative and physician Amish Shah's (D) surprising win in the crowded July 30 Democratic primary, Impact Research, polling for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee conducted a district-wide survey. The findings suggest the race is a tie, with both Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and Dr. Shah tied with 48% of the vote.
The poll is not particularly eye-opening, since less than a percentage point decided Rep. Schweikert's 2022 re-election outcome.
MI-8: Junge Ticks Ahead in Late Pre-Primary Survey
Soon after both state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and two-time former congressional nominee Paul Junge (R) scored landslide primary wins on Aug. 6, the Rivet campaign released the results of their Global Strategy Group survey. The poll, taken just before the general election officially began here on August 7, finds Junge posting a one-point lead over Rivet, 45-44%. Though some recent polls have given Junge a slight edge, the campaign strategies and voter history favor a Democratic victory in November.
GOVERNOR
New Hampshire: Craig & Ayotte Lead Primary Race
As we approach the Sept. 10 New Hampshire primary election, St. Anselm's College released the results of its latest statewide survey. In each gubernatorial primary, the data results suggest that former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and ex-US Senator Kelly Ayotte lead the respective Democratic and Republican open races.
On the Democratic side, the St. Anselm's poll finds former Mayor Craig leading Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, 38-27%. For the Republicans, Ms. Ayotte's margin is much larger over former state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. The ballot test here yields Ayotte a 59-25% advantage. St. Anselm's did not release general election results.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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