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PRESIDENT
Donald Trump: Lewandowski to Return
Amid rumors of a campaign staff shake-up swirling around Team Trump, it appears that the former president's 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski may be returning to the fold. Apparently, he is about to be appointed chairman of the campaign.
It is clear the Trump effort has been jolted off course with the emergence of Kamala Harris as the new Democratic Party nominee, and it is becoming clear that the Republican campaign must return to a more cohesive issue-based message in order to rally the GOP base and attract the narrow band of swing voters. It will be interesting to see if reinstalling Lewandowski will provide the needed answer.
SENATE
Arizona: Surprising New Poll
Peak Insights, polling for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), released the results of its new survey of the Grand Canyon State electorate, which surprisingly finds GOP former gubernatorial nominee and ex-news anchor Kari Lake now in a dead heat, at 46-46%, with US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix).
The last three polls, from The Cook Political Report, Redfield & Wilton Research, and the High Ground group, all showed Rep. Gallego posting substantial leads of 11, 6, and 9 percentage points, respectively. It remains to be seen if the NRSC poll is an anomaly or the beginning of a new trend.
New Jersey: Replacement Senator
Senator Bob Menendez (D) is scheduled to resign his seat on Tuesday, and Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has announced that he will appoint his former gubernatorial chief of staff, George Helmy (D), to serve the balance of the current term. Representative Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is the heavy favorite to win the general election and begin his six-year term in January. Senator Menendez was convicted of multiple bribery counts and awaits sentencing. He vows to appeal the conviction.
HOUSE
OH-13: Within the Margin of Error
In a race that has drawn little in the way of national political attention, a recently-released poll from late July finds freshman Ohio US Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) already locked in a tight race with GOP former state Senator Kevin Coughlin (R). Coughlin spent 14 years in the state House and Senate and is returning to elective politics this year after a 14-year respite.
The Cygnal research organization poll for the National Republican Congressional Committee finds Sykes leading Coughlin, 44-40%, with the congressional generic question breaking as a dead-even tie, 46-46%.
The OH-13 contest is an under-the-radar campaign that will be attracting more attention as we move closer to the election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+2, but Dave's Redistricting App calculates a 50.7D–47.0R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 13th most-vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference.
TX-18: Turner Won't Run in Special
Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who the Harris County Democratic Party members installed as the general election replacement for the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), said yesterday that he will not enter the special election to fill the final two months of the current term. Erica Lee Carter (D), Jackson Lee's daughter, has expressed interest in running for the interim position and it appears she will not have serious opposition.
This means Lee will serve the final two months of her mother's term when she wins the concurrent Nov. 5 special election. The late Congresswoman's daughter was not a candidate to replace her mother in the regular election. Turner is a sure bet to win the regular election and take the seat in the new Congress beginning Jan. 3, 2025.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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