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PRIMARIES
Voting Today: Four States and One CD
Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin will vote today; meanwhile, the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).
The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont, as all incumbents are
running either unopposed or against minor opposition.
In Minnesota, US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.
In Wisconsin's 8th District, the open-seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State.
Former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Senator Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay) and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).
Democrats also have a contested primary in the state's western 3rd District, where state
Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).
Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite in the
party nomination convention in Texas, though several state Representatives and Houston City Councilmembers are also vying for the role.
SENATE
Michigan: Conflicting Polls
Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent.
The New York Times/Siena College poll found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43%, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.
However, the Bullfinch Group also tested the Michigan electorate in early August and found Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38% lead.
The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so this survey is likely an anomaly.
Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys
A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results – the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D). Like in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College and the Bullfinch Group.
The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey's lead to be a whopping 51-37% over
former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result,
recording the Senator's advantage at 51-39%.
This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans. The McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to score the upset he needs.
GOVERNOR
New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run
The New Jersey Governor's race kicked off yesterday as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for Governor soon after the November 2024 general election.
She will be joined by several other contestants – Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Democratic Mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), as well as former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.
The Republicans, meanwhile, will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.
Governor Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field, especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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