Split vs. straight party ticket votes
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Of the 435 US House races conducted in 2024, electorates in just 16 districts split their vote – that is, cast their ballots for a different party's nominee for Representative than they did for President. This means 96.3% of the US House district electorates voted a straight party ticket for President and the US House.
In the Senate races, ticket splitting was slightly more prevalent. A total of 88.2% of the Senate electorates voted straight ticket. For this calculation, the two Senators elected as Independents but who caucus with the Democrats, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT), are counted in the Democratic column.
The electorates from a total of 13 CDs voted for President Trump, and then turned around and chose a Democratic Congressman. Just three congressional electorates voted Republican for the House after supporting Kamala Harris.
The information comes from a Kyle Kondik article for The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. He cites district calculations relating to the presidential and US House contests from Drew Savicki of Election Twitter.
Of the 13 Trump districts that voted Democratic for the House, two are in northern California and another pair lie in south Texas.
In northern California, while then-Rep. John Duarte (R) was losing his Modesto-anchored district to Democrat Adam Gray by just 187 votes, which proved the closest House contest in the country, President Trump notched a 51-46% victory. Just to the north, in the Stockton anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) was re-elected with a 52-48% margin even though Mr. Trump recorded a victory spread of approximately 1.5 percentage points.
Turning to the Rio Grande Valley, indicted Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) was winning an 11th term with a 53-47% margin in his district, which stretches from San Antonio to the US-Mexican border; however, Mr. Trump won with a slightly larger 53-46% vote spread.
To the east in the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) 51-49%, while President Trump expanded his margin to 52-47%; this, in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+17. In the past two elections, however, the 34th has voted more Republican, so we can expect a rating adjustment for this particular district.
The other Democrats who won their individual elections, even though Mr. Trump was winning in their districts, are: Reps. Jared Golden (ME-2), Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-8), Nellie Pou (NJ-9), Gabe Vasquez (NM-2), Don Davis (NC-1), Susie Lee (NV-3), Tom Suozzi (NY-3), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9), and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3).
The three Republican victories that flipped from Ms. Harris to a Republican House candidate came in GOP incumbent seats. Representatives Don Bacon (NE-2), Mike Lawler (NY-17), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-1) all won re-election to the House even though Mr. Trump failed to carry their districts.
In the 2020 election, there were also 16 electorates that voted split ticket for President and US House, but the complexion is different.
Those districts that voted for Joe Biden and a Republican House member in 2020, and switched to Trump in 2024 while continuing to support a GOP House candidate, are: AZ-1 (Rep. David Schweikert) and CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao).
Those that voted for Trump and a Democratic House contender in 2020 but returned to a Republican-Republican ticket in '24 are: AZ-2 (Rep. Eli Crane-R/formerly Rep. Tom O'Halleran-D), IA-3 (Rep. Zach Nunn-R/formerly Rep. Cindy Axne-D), and PA-8 (Rep. Rob Bresnahan-R/formerly Rep. Matt Cartwright-D). Within this latter group, Rep. Cartwright was defeated in the 2024 election. Representatives O'Halleran and Axne lost their seats in 2022.
As you can see, the vast majority of the electorate still tends to vote straight party, and particularly so in presidential election years. It remains to be seen if we will see a pattern shift coming in 2026.
Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.
Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.
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