Ohio May Check Wisconsin

Buckeye State redistricting could buoy GOP in wake of Badger State loss

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Tuesday's Wisconsin state Supreme Court election could well culminate in a redistricting effort that will change the state's congressional districts. Considering the new high court's personnel complexion, a redraw will likely mean the loss of two Republican seats.

Wisconsin, however, is not the only state that will or could undertake redistricting in 2025. Within Ohio's unique and rather complex redistricting system, the current map must be changed before the 2026 elections.

Under the Buckeye State process, maps must be approved by a certain number of redistricting commission members from both parties before receiving three-fifths legislative approval. If a plan does not have sufficient bipartisan support, the district boundaries can still be passed into law with a majority vote in each state legislative chamber but will only stand for two election cycles.  

Such was the case in the 2021-22 Ohio redistricting process; thus, the current map is only in place for the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. Therefore, the state must redraw the plan for the 2026 election and beyond.

Very likely, Wisconsin Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derek Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) will be in jeopardy once the redraw process begins, but a certain pair of Ohio Democratic House members may also face a similar problem.

At the end point through the complex Ohio process, a majority could approve a new map without bipartisan support, but it would again only remain in place for two election cycles. This means, at least for the short-term, Republicans could theoretically make the Ohio congressional map even more to their partisan liking.

Today, two Democratic seats are politically marginal. Veteran Representative Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been in the House since her original election in 1982. She barely won re-election this past November (48.3 – 47.6%), however, once her district was moved out of Cleveland and solely into central and northwestern Ohio it became a much more competitive seat.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rated OH-9 as R+6. The Dave's Redistricting App statisticians calculated the partisan lean in a bit different manner and found the 9th District in pure tossup territory (48.9D – 48.6R), which is the way it performed in 2024.

In the Akron area, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) was reelected with just 51% support last November. Her opponent in that election, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), has already said that he will return for a rematch in 2026. Her 13th District is also very tight politically, one that Kamala Harris carried with only a 183-vote margin in the 2024 presidential election.

Ironically, according to The Down Ballot political blog analysis, Ms. Sykes, then a state Representative, and her father, former state Senator Vernon Sykes, were two Democratic redistricting commission members who refused to vote in favor of the congressional map when it was drawn before the 2022 election. Because of their lack of support the map could only last four years, and now the plan may be re-drawn to Ms. Sykes' personal detriment.

While the Democrats believe they can gain two seats in the Wisconsin delegation through a new redistricting, such an increase could be negated if the Ohio Republicans redraw Districts 9 and 13 in their partisan favor.

As we have seen many times, redistricting in the modern political era is no longer a once-in-a-decade happening. In fact, redistricting situations occurred throughout the last decade and our current decennial appears no different.

In any event, it is quite possible that Representatives Steil, Van Orden, Kaptur, and Sykes may all soon be facing different and unfavorable district boundaries from which to seek re-election in 2026.

Jim Ellis is a 35-year veteran of politics at the state and national levels. He has served ss executive director for two national political action committees, as well as a consultant to the three national Republican Party organizations in DC, the National Federation of Independent Business, and various national conservative groups.

Born and raised in Sacramento, California, he earned a B. A. in Political Science from the University of California at Davis in 1979. Jim raised his daughter, Jacqueline, alone after his wife died following a tragic car accident. He helped establish the Joan Ellis Victims Assistance Network in Rochester, NH. Jim also is a member of the Northern Virginia Football Officials Association, which officiates high school games throughout the region.

Editor's note:

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